Gold prices retreated from resistance defining the down trend started in mid-June.
Commodity prices turned lower Thursday following the prior sessions’ gains as a recovery in the US Dollar pressured assets denominated in terms of the benchmark unit (as expected). Perennially anti-fiat gold prices appeared to reflect the currency’s recovery most directly while crude oil prices merely stalled having scored the largest daily gain in 2 months Wednesday. The greenback advanced alongside two-year Treasury bond yields as the priced-in 2018 interest rate hike path implied in Fed Funds futures steepened. The move probably marks pre-positioning ahead of a much-anticipated speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the central bank’s Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming on Friday.
COPPER is extending its recovery and now it’s in range bound.
LME copper climbed above the daily moving average from a low of $5,901.5/mt on Thursday, with pressure from the five- and 10-day moving averages. The SHFE 1810 contract rose to close at 48,480 yuan/mt overnight. Open interests for the SHFE copper contracts shrank to 587,000 lots. We expect copper prices to trade range bound in the short term. Spot premiums are seen lower at 70-130 yuan/mt today with inflows of imports.
Risk aversion sentiment grew as China’s stainless steel exports.
LME nickel tumbled to an intraday low of $13,185/mt before it regained some losses and closed at $13,240/mt on Thursday. The SHFE 1811 contract fell to a low of 108,760 yuan/mt before it recovered some losses and closed at 109,630 yuan/mt overnight. Risk aversion sentiment grew as China’s stainless steel exports are expected to be affected by the new round of trade tariffs. We expect nickel prices to trade range bound today. LME nickel is likely to hover around $13,200/mt and the SHFE 1811 contract is expected to trade at 108,500-110,000 yuan/mt. Spot prices are seen at 109,000-112,000 yuan/mt.
Oil prices rise on Iran sanctions, but U.S.-China row mutes trading.
Oil prices rose on Friday as U.S. sanctions on Iran are expected to cut significant volumes of crude from the market, although trading was muted by concerns over the unresolved trade dispute between Washington and Beijing. Traders said the supply versus demand outlook for oil markets was relatively tight because of the looming U.S. sanctions against Iran, which will target oil exports from November. Iran is the third-biggest producer within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), exporting on average around 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude and condensate this year, equivalent to around 2.5 percent of global consumption.
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