BULLION - Bullion counter may remain on sideways path amid lot of volatility. Gold prices inched up on Wednesday as markets eyed ongoing political and trade turbulence, even as a U.S. decision to delay tariffs on some Chinese goods boosted risk appetite. On Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump backed off his Sept. 1 deadline for 10% tariffs on some Chinese imports, boosting equity markets . Protests in Hong Kong, uncertainty about Brexit, and the sustained Sino-U.S. trade war still trouble markets. Investors are focused on the Federal Reserve's annual symposium next week. Traders see a 91.2% chance of a 25 basis-point rate cut by the Fed this September. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbed 6 basis points overnight, pushing away from a three year low touched a week ago.

ENERGY- Crude oil may trade with negative path as oil prices fell on Wednesday after industry data showed U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly rose last week, erasing some gains from the last session that were stoked after Washington said it would delay tariffs on some Chinese goods. The move by U.S. President Donald Trump sent commodities, stocks and other assets higher because of optimism the effects of the trade war, already being felt in economies across the world, will be blunted. Oil prices surged by as much as nearly 5 percent. China's July crude oil throughput rose 4% from a year earlier, official data showed on Wednesday, buoyed by improved refinery profit-margins and as new plants started production. Markets had been pummelled in recent weeks amid tough talk from Trump on trade and they remain on tenterhooks due to the unpredictably of the U.S. president. U.S. natural gas futures rose on Tuesday on forecasts for greater heat and cooling demand next week than previously expected despite an increase in output to a record high.

BASE METAL - Base metals may trade on sideways path. China reported a raft of unexpectedly weak July data on Wednesday, including a surprise drop in industrial output growth to a more than 17-year low, underlining widening economic cracks as the trade war with the United States intensifies. London copper fell on Wednesday, as copper exports from some of Peru's top mines resumed after weeks of protests that soothed supply concerns. Copper exports from Peru's port of Matarani have resumed after anti-mining protests that had blocked key infrastructure in the country's southern copper belt eased over the weekend, a spokeswoman for the port operator said. The London Metal Exchange (LME) lead market was roiled in early June by news of an unplanned outage at the Port Pirie lead smelter in Australia. It's just been upended again by a second shutdown of the plant, which is operated by Nyrstar, the Belgian company that had to be rescued from potential insolvency by trade house Trafigura. Indonesia's President Joko Widodo will make the final decision on whether the country brings forward an export ban on mineral ore that is currently due to come into force in 2022, the minister in charge of mining said on Tuesday.

 

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BULLION - Bullion counter may remain on firm path as gold prices gained on Tuesday, hovering near a more than six-year high hit the previous day, as concerns around protests in Hong Kong, a slump in Argentina's markets and the ongoing Sino-U.S. trade war dented risk appetite. Protesters managed to shut down Hong Kong's airport, the world's busiest cargo airport, on Monday. Fears of a possible return to interventionist policies, gripped the Argentine market after market-friendly President Mauricio Macri lost by a much wider-than-expected margin in presidential primaries.. Investors are focused on the Federal Reserve's annual symposium next week. Traders see a 74% chance of a 25 basis-point rate cut by the Fed this September.

ENERGY- Crude oil may trade with negative path as oil prices slipped on Tuesday, offsetting narrow gains in the previous session, as sluggish demand forecasts countered expectations that major producers would prop up oil prices by limiting crude oil output. U.S. oil output from seven major shale formations is expected to rise by 85,000 barrels per day (bpd) in September, to a record 8.77 million bpd, the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecast in its monthly drilling productivity report on Monday. Saudi Arabia, the de-facto leader of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), said late last week it plans to keep its crude oil exports below 7 million barrels per day in August and September to help drain global oil inventories. Saudi Aramco was ready for its IPO, but the timing for the deal will be decided by its sole shareholder, the Saudi government, a senior executive said on Monday. U.S. natural gas futures eased on Monday as the market focused more on an increase in production to record levels as opposed to forecasts for more demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.

BASE METAL - Base metals may trade on sideways to weaker path. China's banks extended surprisingly fewer new yuan loans in July, while growth of money supply and total social financing also slowed, raising pressure on the central bank to ease policy further to support the slowing economy. Lead prices touched a two-week high on Monday after Belgium-listed Nyrstar said it had stopped production at its Port Pirie smelter in Australia, raising fears of shortages of the metal mainly used in car batteries. The stoppage is the second this year at the lead smelter and follows an outage in June and July, when 30,000 tonnes of metal were lost in the 12 million tonne market. Shanghai aluminum rose to its highest in more than two months on Tuesday, as a typhoon in China affected the world's top aluminum producer, raising concerns about supply disruptions. Facilities belonging to China Hongqiao Group 1378.HK were damaged by flooding after Typhoon Lekima wreaked havoc in the smelting heartland of Shandong, according to a statement from an affiliate firm. Indonesia aims to speed up enforcement of a ban on mineral ore exports that is currently due to come into force in 2020, news website Detik.com quoted coordinating minister for maritime affairs Luhut Pandjaitan as saying on Monday.

 

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BULLION - Bullion counter may remain on firm path as gold prices rose on Friday, holding above the key $1,500 per ounce pivot, as fresh concerns about the U.S.-China trade dispute and worries over global economic slowdown lifted demand for the safe-haven metal. Trade tensions between the United States and China further escalated after a report that Washington is delaying a decision about licenses for U.S. firms to restart trade with Huawei Technologies. Meanwhile, U.S. economic data pointed to a robust labor market as the number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, allaying some worries about the potential for a recession and helping U.S. Treasury yields rise. Central banks in New Zealand, Thailand and India stunned financial markets on Wednesday with a series of surprising interest rate cuts and pointing to policymakers dwindling ammunition to fight off a downturn.

ENERGY- Crude oil may trade with positive path as oil prices rose on Friday, supported by expectations of more production cuts by OPEC amid fears the U.S.-China trade row could lead to a global slowdown, curbing demand for crude. Both contracts jumped more than 2% on Thursday to recover from January lows, buoyed by reports that Saudi Arabia, the worlds biggest oil exporter, had called other producers to discuss the recent slide in crude prices. Oil prices have still lost more than 20% from their peaks reached in April, putting them in bear territory. Global financial markets were rocked over the past week after U.S. President Donald Trump said he would impose 10% tariffs on Chinese goods starting September and a fall in the Chinese yuan sparked fears of a currency war. Saudi Arabia, de facto leader of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), planned to maintain its crude oil exports below 7 million barrels per day in August and September to bring the market back to balance and help absorb global oil inventories, a Saudi oil official said on Wednesday. U.S. natural gas demand is at an all-time high and expected to keep rising - and yet, prices are falling. U.S. gas futures this week collapsed to a three-year low, while spot prices were on track to post their weakest summer in over 20 years. In other markets, such lackluster pricing would cause investment to retrench and supply to contract.

BASE METAL - Base metals may trade on sideways to weaker path. Anti-mining protests in Peru have held up about $400 million in copper exports from some of the country's top mines and blocked supplies from reaching their operations for nearly three weeks, port operator Tisur said. Copper production in Democratic Republic of Congo rose 12.5% in the first half of the year from a year earlier to 672,272 tonnes, according to Central Bank figures. London nickel prices eased in early trade on Friday, slipping from a 16-month high struck in the previous session, after Indonesia's nickel miners association said it had urged the government not to bring forward a ban on mineral ore exports. Russian aluminium giant Rusal said on Friday lifting the share of high value-added products in its sales might prove to be tough in coming months due to the weaker market for the metal, which caused a 38% slump in its first-half net profit.

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BULLION - Bullion counter may remain on firm path as gold prices edged up on Wednesday as the ongoing trade tensions between the United States and China continued to boost the appeal of safe-haven assets. Gold prices rose again on Thursday after topping the $1,500 mark in the previous session, as central banks around the world slashed interest rates amidst fears of a global recession. Spot gold rose 0.3% to $1,505 per ounce as of 0104 GMT. On Wednesday, gold soared over 2% to break the $1,500 barrier for the first time in over six years. U.S. gold futures were down 0.3% at $1,515.30 an ounce. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans signaled on Wednesday he was open to lowering rates to bolster inflation and to counter risks to economic growth. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields dropped further below three-month rates, an inversion that has reliably predicted recessions in the past. Central banks in New Zealand, India and Thailand surprised markets with aggressive easing on Wednesday. The Philippines central bank is expected to cut later today.

ENERGY- Oil futures jumped more than $1 a barrel on Thursday amid a weaker dollar, recovering ground after concerns that a global economic slowdown would hurt crude demand sparked losses of over 4% in the previous session. Brent crude had rebounded to $57.52 a barrel, up $1.29, or 2.29%, from its last close by 0032 GMT, while U.S. crude futures jumped $1.30, or 2.54%, to $52.39 a barrel. Both contracts hit their lowest levels since January on Wednesday after a surprise build in U.S. crude inventories added to worries that the brewing Sino-U.S. trade war could further dampen demand-growth this year. Bloomberg News reported the Saudis have decided the market slump is intolerable and all options are on the table. Trade war rhetoric will continue to guide markets, but the comments from Saudi Arabia could lead to unprecedented action to stabilise prices.. U.S. natural gas futures for Wednesday slipped close to a 38-month low with a 5% drop in crude prices and forecasts for less gas demand next week than previously expected. With less hot weather expected through late August, Refinitiv forecast demand in the Lower 48 states would slide to 89.8 bcfd next week from 91.7 bcfd this week as power generators burn less gas to keep air conditioners running.

BASE METAL - Base metals may trade on sideways to weaker path. Markets fear an escalation in the trade war could negatively affect metals demand China, the world's second largest economy. U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday said his tough stance on China's economic and trade policies would ultimately benefit the American economy, even as Beijing signaled it could strike back by curbing sales of chemicals known as rare earths that are used in everything from iPhones to military equipment. China consumes nearly half of all industrial metals. Coppers three-month price was weaker over the afternoon, falling to an intraday low of $5,665 per tonne, before closing at $5,705 per tonne. On the international market, zincs three-month price settled at $2,261 per tonne on Wednesday, its lowest price since October 2016. Nickels three-month price on the London Metal Exchange rallied by around 3% after the close of trading on Wednesday August 7, reaching a year-to-date high of $15,500 per tonne in what market participants labelled a broadly technical move. 

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BULLION - Gold (Oct) can test 35020 while taking resistance near 35510 and silver (Sep) can dip lower towards 40500 and resistance near 41300. The price of gold shot up from about 34040 to around 35630 as investor flocked into gold as yields plummeted following the increase in tariffs between the US and China. Trump said he would impose an additional 10% tariff on $300 billion worth of Chinese imports on Sept. 1 after U.S. negotiators returned from trade talks in Shanghai, saying China had failed to buy large quantities of U.S. agricultural products as promised. Trump also said if trade negotiations fail to progress he could raise tariffs further - even beyond the 25% levy he has already imposed on $250 billion of imports from China. The tariffs may also force the Federal Reserve to again cut interest rates to protect the U.S. economy from trade-policy risk. The October Fed funds rate futures FFV9 have jumped to now fully price in a rate cut in September, compared with only around 60% before the tariff announcement. Another 25 basis point move is priced in by December.

ENERGY- Crude oil may move towards 3650 while taking resistance near 3820. steadying after an overnight plunge following U.S. President Donald Trump’s move to impose more tariffs on Chinese imports, intensifying a trade war that has hit global growth. Brent crude slumped more than 7% on Thursday, its steepest drop in more than three years. U.S. crude fell nearly 8%, posting its worst day in more than four years, The collapse ended a fragile rally built on steady drawdown’s in U.S. inventories, even as global demand looked shaky due to the trade dispute between the world’s two biggest economies. Total U.S. oil demand in May fell 98,000 bpd to 20.26 million bpd, data showed earlier this week. OPEC and partners including Russia, an alliance known as OPEC+, have been curbing output this year to support the market. In July, OPEC production revisited a 2011 low, helped by a further cut by Saudi Arabia. Natural gas can recover towards 158 while taking support near 149. Despite the rally on Wednesday, the hotter trends in the overnight data are still not hot enough to impress and suggests there is still a bearish bias in the market. The rally we say yesterday was probably driven by short-covering due to the slight change in the weather pattern and grossly oversold technical indicators.

BASE METAL - Copper may test 436 while taking resistance near 445. Copper hitting its lowest in over three weeks after U.S. President Donald Trump said he would slap a 10% tariff on the remaining $300 billion of Chinese imports from next month. The reactivation of a smelter belonging to Chile’s state-run Codelco, the world’s top copper producer, will be further delayed until the end of October this year after missing a previous target of April. Copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange dipped 0.6%, aluminium eased 0.2%. Three-month LME copper touched its lowest since July 10 at $5,876 a tonne before paring losses to $5,899, a decline of 0.5%.Zinc and lead dropped 0.8% each. However, nickel rose 1.2% and tin was almost unchanged. Zinc can test 187 while taking resistance near 192. Lead may test 149 while taking resistance near 154. Nickel may rise towards 1040 while taking support near 990. company PT Aneka Tam bang’s nickel ore output in Jan-Jun rose 27% on year to 4.79 mln tn. Aluminum may test 135 while taking resistance near 140.

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BULLION - The price of gold shot up from about 34040 to around 35630 as investor flocked into gold as yields plummeted following the increase in tariffs between the US and China. Trump said he would impose an additional 10% tariff on $300 billion worth of Chinese imports on Sept. 1 after U.S. negotiators returned from trade talks in Shanghai, saying China had failed to buy large quantities of U.S. agricultural products as promised. Trump also said if trade negotiations fail to progress he could raise tariffs further - even beyond the 25% levy he has already imposed on $250 billion of imports from China. The tariffs may also force the Federal Reserve to again cut interest rates to protect the U.S. economy from trade-policy risk. The October Fed funds rate futures FFV9 have jumped to now fully price in a rate cut in September, compared with only around 60% before the tariff announcement. Another 25 basis point move is priced in by December.

ENERGY- Steadying after an overnight plunge following U.S. President Donald Trumps move to impose more tariffs on Chinese imports, intensifying a trade war that has hit global growth. Brent crude slumped more than 7% on Thursday, its steepest drop in more than three years. U.S. crude fell nearly 8%, posting its worst day in more than four years, The collapse ended a fragile rally built on steady drawdowns in U.S. inventories, even as global demand looked shaky due to the trade dispute between the worlds two biggest economies. Total U.S. oil demand in May fell 98,000 bpd to 20.26 million bpd, data showed earlier this week. OPEC and partners including Russia, an alliance known as OPEC+, have been curbing output this year to support the market. In July, OPEC production revisited a 2011 low, helped by a further cut by Saudi Arabia. Despite the rally on Wednesday, the hotter trends in the overnight data are still not hot enough to impress and suggests there is still a bearish bias in the market. The rally we say yesterday was probably driven by short-covering due to the slight change in the weather pattern and grossly oversold technical indicators. Weekly storage report is expected to show a 57 Bcf injection for the week-ending July 26. Energy Aspects is calling for a 55 Bcf injection. Intercontinental Exchange EIA Financial Weekly Index futures settled at 60 Bcf. Last year the EIA recorded a 31 Bcf injection for the period, and the five-year average build is 37 Bcf.

BASE METAL - Copper hitting its lowest in over three weeks after U.S. President Donald Trump said he would slap a 10% tariff on the remaining $300 billion of Chinese imports from next month. The reactivation of a smelter belonging to Chiles state-run Codelco, the worlds top copper producer, will be further delayed until the end of October this year after missing a previous target of April. Copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange dipped 0.6%, aluminium eased 0.2%. Three-month LME copper touched its lowest since July 10 at $5,876 a tonne before paring losses to $5,899, a decline of 0.5%.Zinc and lead dropped 0.8% each. However, nickel rose 1.2% and tin was almost unchanged. Nickel prices were also under pressure after Indonesia's state mining company PT Aneka Tam bangs nickel ore output in Jan-Jun rose 27% on year to 4.79 mln tn. Benchmark aluminium on the London Metal Exchange dropped for a third session and slipped 1.1% in final open-outcry trading to $1,780 a tonne, its weakest since July 3.

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BULLION - Bullion counter may trade on negative path as gold prices slipped to a two-week low on Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve delivered a 25-basis-point rate cut as expected but ruled out a lengthy easing cycle, sending the dollar to a two-year peak. Policymakers moved the U.S. central bank's benchmark overnight lending rate to a target range of 2.00% to 2.25%, citing concerns about the global economy and muted U.S. inflation. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, speaking in a news conference after the release of the central bank's statement, characterized Wednesday's rate cut as "a mid-cycle adjustment to policy", a sign to markets that further sharp cuts were not imminent. U.S. Treasuries reacted to Powell's remarks by flattening the yield curve as the front-end of the market scaled back on prior expectations for at least a 100 basis points of easing in the near-term. U.S. and Chinese negotiators ended a brief round of trade talks on Wednesday with little sign of progress and agreed to meet again in September, prolonging an uneasy truce in a year-long trade war between the world's two largest economies. The U.S. Mint sold 5,500 ounces of American Eagle gold coins in July, up 10% from the previous month, according to the latest data.

ENERGY- Crude oil may trade on negative path as oil prices fell more than $1 on Thursday, declining for the first time in six days, after the U.S. Federal Reserve dampened hopes for a string of rate cuts and Sino-U.S. trade talks ended without progress. The drop came despite a bigger-than-expected decline in inventories in the U.S. and a drop in crude production among OPEC members, along with Libya cutting exports, typically bullish drivers for the market. Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil stockpiles fell for the seventh straight week, declining to their lowest levels since November even as production rebounded and net imports increased, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. Crude inventories fell 8.5 million barrels in the week ended July 26, far exceeding analysts expectations for a decrease of 2.6 million barrels. Libyas state-owned National Oil Corp declared force majeure on loadings of crude from the countrys largest oil field on Wednesday. U.S. natural gas futures rose 4.5% on Wednesday, recovering from a three-year low touched the previous day as investors covered short positions..

BASE METAL - Base metals may trade on sideways to weaker path. Pressure on China's factories eased a little in July due to growth-boosting steps from the government, but overall manufacturing activity remained in contraction, a private survey showed on Thursday. London copper prices slipped to a three-week low on Thursday after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the U.S. central bank's first rate cut since 2008 was not the start of a long easing cycle, while Sino-U.S. trade talks appeared to have made little progress. U.S. and Chinese negotiators ended a round of trade talks with little sign of progress and agreed to meet again in September, prolonging an uneasy truce in a year-long trade war between the world's top two economies. A Chinese billionaire has been indicted by a grand jury on charges he schemed with the aluminum company he founded to evade $1.8 billion of tariffs by smuggling huge amounts of the metal into the United States, federal prosecutors said on Wednesday.

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BULLION - Bullion counter may trade on mixed path. Gold prices eased on Tuesday as the dollar held near multi-month highs, while investors awaited outcome of a two-day U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting, where the central bank is widely expected to reduce interest rates. The dollar was up 0.1%, hovering near a two-month high hit in the previous session, making gold expensive for holder of other currencies. The U.S. Fed begins a two-day policy meeting later on Tuesday, at which it is widely expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points. If implemented, it would be the central banks first rate cut in a decade. Japans central bank is expected to keep monetary policy on hold at a meeting ending later on Tuesday, but some investors say there is a chance Japans central bank could change its forward guidance to reassure traders that rates will remain low.

ENERGY- Crude oil may trade on positive path as oil prices extended overnight gains on Tuesday amid widespread expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates for the first time in more than a decade this week. U.S. central bankers will begin their twoday meeting later in the day and are expected to lower borrowing costs for the first time since the depths of the financial crisis more than a decade ago. U.S. President Donald Trump said a small rate cut is not enough. Economic growth in the United States slowed less than expected in the second quarter, strengthening the outlook for oil consumption but, elsewhere, disappointing economic data has increased concerns about slower growth. Supply risks are still a concern as tensions remained high around the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the worlds oil passes. Tensions spiked between Iran and the West after Iranian commandos seized a British-flagged oil tanker in the Gulf this month in apparent retaliation for the capture of an Iranian tanker by British forces near Gibraltar.

BASE METAL - Base metals may trade on sideways path. Industrial metals traded in tight ranges on Tuesday as investors exercised caution ahead of planned U.S.-China trade talks and a two-day U.S. Federal Reserve meeting starting later today. Meanwhile, U.S. and Chinese officials are due to meet on Tuesday in Shanghai for talks on a year-long trade dispute that has weighed on global economic growth and demand for industrial metals. Expectations for progress at the U.S.-China trade meeting are low, so officials and businesses are hoping Washington and Beijing can at least detail commitments for goodwill gestures and clear the path for future negotiations. Steel futures in China slumped to their lowest in five weeks on Monday ahead of the lifting of intensified production restrictions in the nation's top steelmaking city of Tangshan. 

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BULLION - Bullion counter may trade on weaker path as gold prices witnessed sharp decline in the previous session, while investors awaited U.S. economic growth data due later in the day that could provide clues about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting. Gold fell on Thursday after data showed that weekly U.S. jobless claims number fell to a three-month low last week, pointing to strength in the labor market, while new orders for key U.S.-made capital goods surged 1.9 % in June. Market participants are now looking ahead to the U.S. central bank's July 30-31 monetary policy meeting where it is expected to trim its interest rate by at least 25 basis points. U.S. Treasury yields following rosier-than-expected economic sentiment from the European Central Bank. The ECB signalled its intention to explore monetary easing, but left interest rates unchanged, and bank President Mario Draghi struck a more upbeat tone on the economy than investors expected. The ECB signalled its intention to explore monetary easing, but left interest rates unchanged, and bank President Mario Draghi struck a more upbeat tone on the economy than investors expected.

ENERGY- Crude oil may trade on weaker path as oil prices fell after a Reuters poll showed global economic growth is likely to slow further amid the U.S.-China trade war, although losses were limited by tensions in the Middle East. A global economic growth rut risks deepening, despite expectations that major central banks will cut rates or ease policy further, according to Reuters polls of over 500 economists who remain worried about the U.S.-China trade war. Increasing pessimism is clear from the latest polls taken July 1-24, which show the growth outlook for nearly 90% of over 45 economies polled was either downgraded or left unchanged. That applied not just to this year but also 2020. While concerns over Middle East supply disruptions have led to recent price spikes, oil has generally been under pressure from worries about global economic growth amid growing signs of harm from the rumbling Sino-U.S. trade war over the past year. U.S. natural gas futures gained over 1% on Thursday following the release of a report showing a smaller-than-usual storage build last week and forecasts for slightly higher demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.

BASE METAL - Base metals may trade on subdued path. Copper prices dropped on Friday, on track for their first weekly decline in three, as comments from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi were less dovish than hoped after the bank held rates steady at its latest meeting. An aggressive easing by a major central bank generally supports growth and helps lift metal prices. Perus president said his government will re-evaluate its recent decision to grant a construction permit to Southern Copper Corp for its proposed mine Tia Maria at the request of local authorities calling for its annulment. The European Central Bank (ECB) signalled its intention to explore monetary easing but left interest rates unchanged on Thursday. Lead negotiators for China and the United States will meet in Shanghai on Tuesday for two days in the next round of trade talks aimed to end their year-long trade war, Chinas commerce ministry confirmed. 

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BULLION - Bullion counter may trade on weaker path as gold prices edged lower on Thursday as the U.S. dollar hovered near multi-week highs, while investors awaited clues on monetary policy easing from leading central banks to shore up global economy. Investor focus shifted to the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting due later in the day and a widely expected interest rate cut from the U.S. Federal Reserve next week, which are expected to dictate the tempo for currencies and bond yields in coming months. In the United States, manufacturing activity slowed to a 10-year low in early July with production volumes and purchases falling. Weak housing and manufacturing are offsetting strong consumer spending, holding back the economy and posing a threat to the longest expansion in history. SPDR Gold Trust GLD, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings dropped 0.11% to 822.25 tonnes on Wednesday from 823.13 tonnes on Tuesday.

ENERGY- Crude oil may trade on weaker path as oil ticked lower early on Thursday as more signs of slowing global growth added to demand concerns, with Middle East tensions underpinning prices. Sentiment in the oil market has darkened as investors worry that slowing global economic growth will weaken demand for oil. A series of purchasing manager index readings in the United States and Europe were weaker than expected, confirming concerns about slower economic growth amid a trade war between the United States and China. Global growth concerns are driving energy prices lower as forecasts keep getting downgraded even as the U.S. will be sending a trade team to China next week. Set against those worries are ongoing tensions in the Middle East following the seizure of a British-flagged tanker in the Gulf by Iranian forces last week. Britain, meanwhile, gained initial support from France, Italy and Denmark for its plan for a European-led naval mission to ensure safe shipping in the Gulf. U.S. natural gas futures fell on Wednesday to their lowest level in over a month on forecasts for cooler weather over the next two weeks than previously forecast.

BASE METAL - Base metals may trade on subdued path. Top U.S. and Chinese negotiators will meet face-to-face next week for the first time since Donald Trump and Xi Jinping agreed to revive talks to end their year-long trade war. Shanghai lead rose on Thursday, tracking a rally in London prices overnight, following concerns of supply shortages amid some maintenance activities in China. Three-month lead on the London Metal Exchange (LME) jumped 2.6% on Wednesday, its strongest gain in more than six weeks, as lead stockpiles in LME-approved warehouses fell to a fresh decade low of 57,425 tonnes. The difference between the LME cash lead contract over the three-month lead contract flipped to a premium of $1.5 a tonne on Wednesday, indicating near-term supply shortage. The shutdown of 1.5 million tonnes-per-year of alumina refining capacity in China will curb oversupply of the aluminium raw material and see prices currently languishing near two-year lows reach a bottom.

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BULLION - Bullion counter may trade on mixed path. Gold prices edged higher on Wednesday, recovering from a one-week low touched in the previous session, on expectations of an interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve and escalating tensions in the Middle East. The European Central Bank is expected to signal easier monetary policy at its meeting this week, while the Turkish central bank is expected to make a 250 bp cut on July 25. A U.S. Navy ship took defensive action against a second Iranian drone in the Strait of Hormuz last week, but did not see the drone go into the water, the U.S. military said on Tuesday. U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and senior U.S. officials will travel to Shanghai on Monday for face-to-face trade meetings with Chinese officials, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday, citing unnamed sources. Futures Fed watch remain 100% priced for a rate cut of 25 basis points (bps) by the Fed next week, and have even priced in an 18% chance of a 50 bp cut.

ENERGY- Crude oil may trade on positive path as oil prices rose on Wednesday, extending gains after an industry group reported a much bigger than expected drop in U.S. inventories, while the U.S. Navy said it may have downed a second Iranian drone last week. U.S. crude stocks fell more than expected in the week to July 19, declining by 11 million barrels to 449 million, the trade group American Petroleum Institute said on Tuesday. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub fell by 448,000 barrels, although gasoline stocks rose by 4.4 million barrels, compared with analysts expectations for a 730,000-barrel decline. Signs of rising tensions in the Middle East offset a weaker global growth outlook from the International Monetary Fund, which had kept prices largely flat for much of Tuesdays session. Irans capture of a British oil tanker last week sparked worries about supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the worlds oil flows. The tensions come as the United States aims to cut off Irans oil exports and against the backdrop of supply cuts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries since the start of the year to prop up prices. U.S. natural gas futures eased on Tuesday on forecasts for slightly cooler weather and lower demand over the next two weeks than previously forecast.

BASE METAL - Base metals may trade with upside path. Industrial metals on the London Metal Exchange advanced on Wednesday on reports of potential progress in trade negotiations between the United States and China. The trade war between the world's two biggest economies has weighed on global economic growth and dimmed demand outlook for industrial metals. A sign of progress in resolving the dispute often supports prices of base metals. China's central bank governor Yi Gang said the country's current interest rate level is appropriate, the financial magazine Caixin reported on Tuesday. Global aluminium production fell by 0.5% in the first half of this year, according to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI). Chinese output fell by 3.1% in June and by 0.4% over the first six months of the year, according to the IAI. Alcoa, which operates the Canadian smelter, expects the return to full capacity to be achieved in the second quarter of 2020.

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BULLION - Bullion counter may trade on sideways to weaker path as gold prices edged lower on Wednesday, but still held above the psychological $1,400 level, as the dollar gained after robust U.S. retail sales tempered fears of a sharp downturn in the world's largest economy. The Commerce Department said retail sales rose 0.4% last month as households stepped up purchases of motor vehicles and a variety of other goods. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales edging up 0.1% in June. However, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday reiterated pledges to "act as appropriate" to keep the U.S. economy humming, in a speech that did not deviate from expectations that a rate cut is on the way. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump said on Tuesday the United States still has a long way to go to conclude a trade deal with China but could impose tariffs on an additional $325 billion worth of Chinese goods if it needed to do so.

ENERGY- Crude oil may trade on weaker path as oil steadied after falling more than 3% overnight, with U.S. crude trailing Brent after U.S. inventory data fell short of expectations, amid conflicting signals from the U.S. and Iran over the disputes that have roiled prices recently. Iran denied it was willing to negotiate over its ballistic missile program, contradicting a claim by U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and appearing to undercut Trumps statement that Washington had made progress on its disputes with Tehran. Tensions between the United States and Iran over Tehrans nuclear program have lent support to oil futures; given the potential for a price spike should the situation deteriorate. Crude inventories fell by 1.4 million barrels in the week to July 12 to 460 million, industry group the American Petroleum Institute said on Tuesday. Still, more than half the daily crude production in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico remained offline on Tuesday in the wake of Hurricane Barry, the U.S. drilling regulator said, as most oil companies were re-staffing facilities to resume production. U.S. natural gas futures on Tuesday fell more than 4%, its biggest daily percentage decline since late January on forecasts for less hot weather through the end of July than previously forecast and a slow return of production from the Gulf of Mexico after Tropical Storm Barry.

BASE METAL - Base metals may trade with mixed path. Peruvian President Martin Vizcarra rejected a demand from a regional governor on Tuesday to cancel a permit for Southern Copper Corps $1.4 billion Tia Maria copper mine project amid protests from local residents. London zinc prices fell on Wednesday, ending a five-session streak of gains, after data showed a global zinc market deficit narrowed in May. The global zinc market deficit narrowed to 27,200 tonnes in May from an upwardly revised deficit of 87,500 tonnes in April, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Zinc inventories in LME-approved warehouses have risen around 60% since April when the stockpiles hit a record low, while stocks in warehouses tracked by ShFE have jumped 268% year-to-date. The global lead market recorded a 13,400-tonne surplus in May after a deficit of 30,800 tonnes in April, data from the ILZSG showed. 

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