BULLION - Bullion counter may remain on firm path as gold prices gained on Tuesday, hovering near a more than six-year high hit the previous day, as concerns around protests in Hong Kong, a slump in Argentina's markets and the ongoing Sino-U.S. trade war dented risk appetite. Protesters managed to shut down Hong Kong's airport, the world's busiest cargo airport, on Monday. Fears of a possible return to interventionist policies, gripped the Argentine market after market-friendly President Mauricio Macri lost by a much wider-than-expected margin in presidential primaries.. Investors are focused on the Federal Reserve's annual symposium next week. Traders see a 74% chance of a 25 basis-point rate cut by the Fed this September.

ENERGY- Crude oil may trade with negative path as oil prices slipped on Tuesday, offsetting narrow gains in the previous session, as sluggish demand forecasts countered expectations that major producers would prop up oil prices by limiting crude oil output. U.S. oil output from seven major shale formations is expected to rise by 85,000 barrels per day (bpd) in September, to a record 8.77 million bpd, the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecast in its monthly drilling productivity report on Monday. Saudi Arabia, the de-facto leader of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), said late last week it plans to keep its crude oil exports below 7 million barrels per day in August and September to help drain global oil inventories. Saudi Aramco was ready for its IPO, but the timing for the deal will be decided by its sole shareholder, the Saudi government, a senior executive said on Monday. U.S. natural gas futures eased on Monday as the market focused more on an increase in production to record levels as opposed to forecasts for more demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.

BASE METAL - Base metals may trade on sideways to weaker path. China's banks extended surprisingly fewer new yuan loans in July, while growth of money supply and total social financing also slowed, raising pressure on the central bank to ease policy further to support the slowing economy. Lead prices touched a two-week high on Monday after Belgium-listed Nyrstar said it had stopped production at its Port Pirie smelter in Australia, raising fears of shortages of the metal mainly used in car batteries. The stoppage is the second this year at the lead smelter and follows an outage in June and July, when 30,000 tonnes of metal were lost in the 12 million tonne market. Shanghai aluminum rose to its highest in more than two months on Tuesday, as a typhoon in China affected the world's top aluminum producer, raising concerns about supply disruptions. Facilities belonging to China Hongqiao Group 1378.HK were damaged by flooding after Typhoon Lekima wreaked havoc in the smelting heartland of Shandong, according to a statement from an affiliate firm. Indonesia aims to speed up enforcement of a ban on mineral ore exports that is currently due to come into force in 2020, news website Detik.com quoted coordinating minister for maritime affairs Luhut Pandjaitan as saying on Monday.

 

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BULLION - The price of gold shot up from about 34040 to around 35630 as investor flocked into gold as yields plummeted following the increase in tariffs between the US and China. Trump said he would impose an additional 10% tariff on $300 billion worth of Chinese imports on Sept. 1 after U.S. negotiators returned from trade talks in Shanghai, saying China had failed to buy large quantities of U.S. agricultural products as promised. Trump also said if trade negotiations fail to progress he could raise tariffs further - even beyond the 25% levy he has already imposed on $250 billion of imports from China. The tariffs may also force the Federal Reserve to again cut interest rates to protect the U.S. economy from trade-policy risk. The October Fed funds rate futures FFV9 have jumped to now fully price in a rate cut in September, compared with only around 60% before the tariff announcement. Another 25 basis point move is priced in by December.

ENERGY- Steadying after an overnight plunge following U.S. President Donald Trumps move to impose more tariffs on Chinese imports, intensifying a trade war that has hit global growth. Brent crude slumped more than 7% on Thursday, its steepest drop in more than three years. U.S. crude fell nearly 8%, posting its worst day in more than four years, The collapse ended a fragile rally built on steady drawdowns in U.S. inventories, even as global demand looked shaky due to the trade dispute between the worlds two biggest economies. Total U.S. oil demand in May fell 98,000 bpd to 20.26 million bpd, data showed earlier this week. OPEC and partners including Russia, an alliance known as OPEC+, have been curbing output this year to support the market. In July, OPEC production revisited a 2011 low, helped by a further cut by Saudi Arabia. Despite the rally on Wednesday, the hotter trends in the overnight data are still not hot enough to impress and suggests there is still a bearish bias in the market. The rally we say yesterday was probably driven by short-covering due to the slight change in the weather pattern and grossly oversold technical indicators. Weekly storage report is expected to show a 57 Bcf injection for the week-ending July 26. Energy Aspects is calling for a 55 Bcf injection. Intercontinental Exchange EIA Financial Weekly Index futures settled at 60 Bcf. Last year the EIA recorded a 31 Bcf injection for the period, and the five-year average build is 37 Bcf.

BASE METAL - Copper hitting its lowest in over three weeks after U.S. President Donald Trump said he would slap a 10% tariff on the remaining $300 billion of Chinese imports from next month. The reactivation of a smelter belonging to Chiles state-run Codelco, the worlds top copper producer, will be further delayed until the end of October this year after missing a previous target of April. Copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange dipped 0.6%, aluminium eased 0.2%. Three-month LME copper touched its lowest since July 10 at $5,876 a tonne before paring losses to $5,899, a decline of 0.5%.Zinc and lead dropped 0.8% each. However, nickel rose 1.2% and tin was almost unchanged. Nickel prices were also under pressure after Indonesia's state mining company PT Aneka Tam bangs nickel ore output in Jan-Jun rose 27% on year to 4.79 mln tn. Benchmark aluminium on the London Metal Exchange dropped for a third session and slipped 1.1% in final open-outcry trading to $1,780 a tonne, its weakest since July 3.

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BULLION - Bullion counter may trade on weaker path as gold prices edged lower on Thursday as the U.S. dollar hovered near multi-week highs, while investors awaited clues on monetary policy easing from leading central banks to shore up global economy. Investor focus shifted to the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting due later in the day and a widely expected interest rate cut from the U.S. Federal Reserve next week, which are expected to dictate the tempo for currencies and bond yields in coming months. In the United States, manufacturing activity slowed to a 10-year low in early July with production volumes and purchases falling. Weak housing and manufacturing are offsetting strong consumer spending, holding back the economy and posing a threat to the longest expansion in history. SPDR Gold Trust GLD, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings dropped 0.11% to 822.25 tonnes on Wednesday from 823.13 tonnes on Tuesday.

ENERGY- Crude oil may trade on weaker path as oil ticked lower early on Thursday as more signs of slowing global growth added to demand concerns, with Middle East tensions underpinning prices. Sentiment in the oil market has darkened as investors worry that slowing global economic growth will weaken demand for oil. A series of purchasing manager index readings in the United States and Europe were weaker than expected, confirming concerns about slower economic growth amid a trade war between the United States and China. Global growth concerns are driving energy prices lower as forecasts keep getting downgraded even as the U.S. will be sending a trade team to China next week. Set against those worries are ongoing tensions in the Middle East following the seizure of a British-flagged tanker in the Gulf by Iranian forces last week. Britain, meanwhile, gained initial support from France, Italy and Denmark for its plan for a European-led naval mission to ensure safe shipping in the Gulf. U.S. natural gas futures fell on Wednesday to their lowest level in over a month on forecasts for cooler weather over the next two weeks than previously forecast.

BASE METAL - Base metals may trade on subdued path. Top U.S. and Chinese negotiators will meet face-to-face next week for the first time since Donald Trump and Xi Jinping agreed to revive talks to end their year-long trade war. Shanghai lead rose on Thursday, tracking a rally in London prices overnight, following concerns of supply shortages amid some maintenance activities in China. Three-month lead on the London Metal Exchange (LME) jumped 2.6% on Wednesday, its strongest gain in more than six weeks, as lead stockpiles in LME-approved warehouses fell to a fresh decade low of 57,425 tonnes. The difference between the LME cash lead contract over the three-month lead contract flipped to a premium of $1.5 a tonne on Wednesday, indicating near-term supply shortage. The shutdown of 1.5 million tonnes-per-year of alumina refining capacity in China will curb oversupply of the aluminium raw material and see prices currently languishing near two-year lows reach a bottom.

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BULLION - Bullion counter may trade on mixed path. Gold prices edged higher on Wednesday, recovering from a one-week low touched in the previous session, on expectations of an interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve and escalating tensions in the Middle East. The European Central Bank is expected to signal easier monetary policy at its meeting this week, while the Turkish central bank is expected to make a 250 bp cut on July 25. A U.S. Navy ship took defensive action against a second Iranian drone in the Strait of Hormuz last week, but did not see the drone go into the water, the U.S. military said on Tuesday. U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and senior U.S. officials will travel to Shanghai on Monday for face-to-face trade meetings with Chinese officials, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday, citing unnamed sources. Futures Fed watch remain 100% priced for a rate cut of 25 basis points (bps) by the Fed next week, and have even priced in an 18% chance of a 50 bp cut.

ENERGY- Crude oil may trade on positive path as oil prices rose on Wednesday, extending gains after an industry group reported a much bigger than expected drop in U.S. inventories, while the U.S. Navy said it may have downed a second Iranian drone last week. U.S. crude stocks fell more than expected in the week to July 19, declining by 11 million barrels to 449 million, the trade group American Petroleum Institute said on Tuesday. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub fell by 448,000 barrels, although gasoline stocks rose by 4.4 million barrels, compared with analysts expectations for a 730,000-barrel decline. Signs of rising tensions in the Middle East offset a weaker global growth outlook from the International Monetary Fund, which had kept prices largely flat for much of Tuesdays session. Irans capture of a British oil tanker last week sparked worries about supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the worlds oil flows. The tensions come as the United States aims to cut off Irans oil exports and against the backdrop of supply cuts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries since the start of the year to prop up prices. U.S. natural gas futures eased on Tuesday on forecasts for slightly cooler weather and lower demand over the next two weeks than previously forecast.

BASE METAL - Base metals may trade with upside path. Industrial metals on the London Metal Exchange advanced on Wednesday on reports of potential progress in trade negotiations between the United States and China. The trade war between the world's two biggest economies has weighed on global economic growth and dimmed demand outlook for industrial metals. A sign of progress in resolving the dispute often supports prices of base metals. China's central bank governor Yi Gang said the country's current interest rate level is appropriate, the financial magazine Caixin reported on Tuesday. Global aluminium production fell by 0.5% in the first half of this year, according to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI). Chinese output fell by 3.1% in June and by 0.4% over the first six months of the year, according to the IAI. Alcoa, which operates the Canadian smelter, expects the return to full capacity to be achieved in the second quarter of 2020.

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BULLION - Bullion counter may trade with sideways bias as gold steadied on Wednesday after falling to a more than two-week low in the previous session, as a stronger dollar dented demand for bullion ahead of the release of minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserves latest meeting. The dollar hovered near a four-week high on Wednesday, supported by higher U.S. yields, which rose overnight after the United States eased trade restrictions on Chinese telecommunications equipment maker Huawei Technologies Co Ltd. Chinese Ambassador to the United States Cui Tiankai said on Tuesday that Beijing was ready to resume trade talks with Washington, but blamed the U.S. side for frequently changing its mind on tentative deals to end U.S.-China trade disputes. Meanwhile, the Fed minutes are expected to provide insights into the May 1 central bank meeting in which policymakers decided to keep interested rates steady and signalled little appetite to adjust them any time soon.

ENERGY- Crude oil may remain subdued as oil prices fell on Wednesday after industry data showed an increase in U.S. crude inventories and as Saudi Arabia pledged to keep markets balanced. The American Petroleum Institute(API) said on Tuesday that U.S. crude stockpiles rose by 2.4 million barrels last week, to 480.2 million barrels, compared with analysts' expectations for a decrease of 599,000 barrels. Official data from the U.S Energy Information Administration's oil stockpiles report is due later on Wednesday. Outside the United States, Saudi Arabia on Wednesday said it was committed to a balanced and sustainable oil market. Saudi Arabia has been at the forefront of supply cuts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), of which the kingdom is the de-facto leader, which started in January and are aimed at reducing global oversupply that emerged in 2018. U.S. natural gas futures on Tuesday fell from a five-week high in the previous session on forecasts for output to increase and demand to decline as the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals drops. 

BASE METAL - Base metals may witness some lower level buying. London copper prices edged higher in early Asian trade on Wednesday, as a new blockade at MMG Ltd's Las Bambas mine in Peru lent support to prices, although gains were capped by ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions. An earlier road blockade at the site by an indigenous community in March and April disrupted the mine's copper concentrate exports and boosted copper prices. An indigenous Peruvian community has imposed a new road blockade on MMG Ltd's Las Bambas mine, one of Peru's largest copper producers, after talks with the company over compensation broke down, a representative of the public ombudsman office said on Tuesday. LME aluminium was down 0.1% at $1,795 a tonne after posting its lowest close since January 2017 on Tuesday. ShFE aluminium fell for a third day, slipping as much as 0.9% to 14,135 yuan, its lowest since May 10.

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BULLION - Bullion counter may trade on flat to negative note as gold prices eased on Thursday as the dollar remained near a two-year high hit in the previous session, while a dip in equities and weak data from Germany augmented worries about the pace of global growth and cushioned losses in the safe-haven bullion. The euro nursed losses against the dollar on Thursday after dipping to a 22-month low on a surprise drop in a leading indicator for economic activity in Germany, amplifying worries of a growth slowdown in Europe largest economy. Gold is often used as a hedge against economic and political uncertainties. U.S. Treasury yields were lower across maturities on Wednesday as investors piled into the safe-haven government bonds following a dovish report from Canada central bank, weak data from Germany and Australia, and solid demand at auction for $41 billion of new five-year notes. SPDR Gold Trust, the world largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell 0.23 percent to 747.87 tonnes on Wednesday from 749.63 tonnes on Tuesday.

ENERGY- Crude oil may witness some profit booking at higher levels as oil prices fell on Thursday as record U.S. output and rising crude stockpiles dampened the impact on markets of tighter U.S. sanctions on Iran and producer club OPEC continued curbs on supply. Crude futures rose to 2019 highs earlier in the week after the United States said on Monday it would end all exemptions for sanctions against Iran, demanding countries halt oil imports from Tehran from May or face punitive action from Washington. U.S. crude oil production EIA has risen by more than 2 million barrels per day (bpd) since early 2018 to a record of 12.2 million bpd currently, making the United States the world biggest oil producer ahead of Russia and Saudi Arabia. Alcoa, which has targeted both plants for closure for some time, finally reached agreement with unions in January and curtailed the last operating plotlines in February, removing 128,000 tonnes of annual capacity from the European market. U.S. natural gas futures settled higher on Wednesday after touching their lowest level in nearly three years in the last session, as forecasts for hotter weather were expected to boost cooling demand.

BASE METAL - Base metals prices may trade with sideways to positive bias. Global aluminium production flatlined in the first quarter of this year, according to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI). A couple of longrunning outages together with curtailments in Europe caused production outside China to dip 1.4 percent to 6.37 million tonnes in the first three months of 2019. Chinese production, a complex moving picture of price-induced curtailments, pollution controls and capacity swaps, edged 1.6 percent higher to 8.93 million tonnes. The net result was that global production rose by a marginal 0.3 percent year-on-year as China remained the world dominant player with a 57 percent share of world production.

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