BULLION - Bullion counter may trade on negative path as gold prices slipped to a two-week low on Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve delivered a 25-basis-point rate cut as expected but ruled out a lengthy easing cycle, sending the dollar to a two-year peak. Policymakers moved the U.S. central bank's benchmark overnight lending rate to a target range of 2.00% to 2.25%, citing concerns about the global economy and muted U.S. inflation. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, speaking in a news conference after the release of the central bank's statement, characterized Wednesday's rate cut as "a mid-cycle adjustment to policy", a sign to markets that further sharp cuts were not imminent. U.S. Treasuries reacted to Powell's remarks by flattening the yield curve as the front-end of the market scaled back on prior expectations for at least a 100 basis points of easing in the near-term. U.S. and Chinese negotiators ended a brief round of trade talks on Wednesday with little sign of progress and agreed to meet again in September, prolonging an uneasy truce in a year-long trade war between the world's two largest economies. The U.S. Mint sold 5,500 ounces of American Eagle gold coins in July, up 10% from the previous month, according to the latest data.

ENERGY- Crude oil may trade on negative path as oil prices fell more than $1 on Thursday, declining for the first time in six days, after the U.S. Federal Reserve dampened hopes for a string of rate cuts and Sino-U.S. trade talks ended without progress. The drop came despite a bigger-than-expected decline in inventories in the U.S. and a drop in crude production among OPEC members, along with Libya cutting exports, typically bullish drivers for the market. Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil stockpiles fell for the seventh straight week, declining to their lowest levels since November even as production rebounded and net imports increased, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. Crude inventories fell 8.5 million barrels in the week ended July 26, far exceeding analysts expectations for a decrease of 2.6 million barrels. Libyas state-owned National Oil Corp declared force majeure on loadings of crude from the countrys largest oil field on Wednesday. U.S. natural gas futures rose 4.5% on Wednesday, recovering from a three-year low touched the previous day as investors covered short positions..

BASE METAL - Base metals may trade on sideways to weaker path. Pressure on China's factories eased a little in July due to growth-boosting steps from the government, but overall manufacturing activity remained in contraction, a private survey showed on Thursday. London copper prices slipped to a three-week low on Thursday after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the U.S. central bank's first rate cut since 2008 was not the start of a long easing cycle, while Sino-U.S. trade talks appeared to have made little progress. U.S. and Chinese negotiators ended a round of trade talks with little sign of progress and agreed to meet again in September, prolonging an uneasy truce in a year-long trade war between the world's top two economies. A Chinese billionaire has been indicted by a grand jury on charges he schemed with the aluminum company he founded to evade $1.8 billion of tariffs by smuggling huge amounts of the metal into the United States, federal prosecutors said on Wednesday.

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BULLION - Bullion counter may trade on mixed path as gold was mostly unchanged in early Asian trade on Wednesday as investors awaited the outcome of a U.S. Federal Reserve meeting at which policymakers are expected to cut interest rates for the first time since the financial crisis. Investors are bracing for the Fed's policy announcement due later in the day, for which markets have already fully priced in a quarter of a percentage point rate cut. Markets will also be watching for guidance on whether the Federal Open Market Committee's expected move is a one-time cut or the beginning of a rate-cutting cycle. U.S. President Donald Trump reiterated his call for the Fed to make a large interest rate cut, saying he was disappointed in the U.S. central bank and that it had put him at a disadvantage by not acting sooner. Trump warned China against waiting out his presidency before finalizing a trade deal, saying if he wins re-election in November 2020, the outcome could be no agreement or a harsher one.

ENERGY- Crude oil may trade on positive path as oil prices rose for a fifth day on Wednesday, buoyed by a bigger than expected drop in U.S. inventories and as investors awaited a widely expected cut in interest rates by the Federal Reserve, the first in more than 10 years. Still U.S. inventories have been falling in recent weeks suggesting demand concerns are overstated. Stocks fell again last week, along with gasoline and distillate inventories, data from industry group the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed on Tuesday. Distillate fuels stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, fell by 890,000 barrels, compared with expectations for a 1 million-barrel gain, the API data showed. Total crude stockpiles, however, would still be about 3% higher than the average for the five years between 2014-2018 average for this time of year.

BASE METAL - Base metals may trade on sideways path. U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday warned China against waiting out his first term to finalise any trade deal, saying if he wins re-election in the November 2020 U.S. presidential contest, the outcome will be worse for China. Chinas factory activity shrank for the third straight month in July, an official survey showed on Wednesday, underlining the need for more stimulus to support an economy hit hard by the bruising trade war with the United States. Copper prices in London were steady on Wednesday ahead of a rate decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve, but were on track to fall this month amid slowing growth from top consumer China. About 18,000 tonnes of lead are expected to be off the market as Korea Zinc is carrying out maintenance at a lead refinery until late August, but the company had secured inventories ahead of the maintenance. 

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BULLION - Bullion counter may trade on mixed path. Gold prices eased on Tuesday as the dollar held near multi-month highs, while investors awaited outcome of a two-day U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting, where the central bank is widely expected to reduce interest rates. The dollar was up 0.1%, hovering near a two-month high hit in the previous session, making gold expensive for holder of other currencies. The U.S. Fed begins a two-day policy meeting later on Tuesday, at which it is widely expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points. If implemented, it would be the central banks first rate cut in a decade. Japans central bank is expected to keep monetary policy on hold at a meeting ending later on Tuesday, but some investors say there is a chance Japans central bank could change its forward guidance to reassure traders that rates will remain low.

ENERGY- Crude oil may trade on positive path as oil prices extended overnight gains on Tuesday amid widespread expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates for the first time in more than a decade this week. U.S. central bankers will begin their twoday meeting later in the day and are expected to lower borrowing costs for the first time since the depths of the financial crisis more than a decade ago. U.S. President Donald Trump said a small rate cut is not enough. Economic growth in the United States slowed less than expected in the second quarter, strengthening the outlook for oil consumption but, elsewhere, disappointing economic data has increased concerns about slower growth. Supply risks are still a concern as tensions remained high around the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the worlds oil passes. Tensions spiked between Iran and the West after Iranian commandos seized a British-flagged oil tanker in the Gulf this month in apparent retaliation for the capture of an Iranian tanker by British forces near Gibraltar.

BASE METAL - Base metals may trade on sideways path. Industrial metals traded in tight ranges on Tuesday as investors exercised caution ahead of planned U.S.-China trade talks and a two-day U.S. Federal Reserve meeting starting later today. Meanwhile, U.S. and Chinese officials are due to meet on Tuesday in Shanghai for talks on a year-long trade dispute that has weighed on global economic growth and demand for industrial metals. Expectations for progress at the U.S.-China trade meeting are low, so officials and businesses are hoping Washington and Beijing can at least detail commitments for goodwill gestures and clear the path for future negotiations. Steel futures in China slumped to their lowest in five weeks on Monday ahead of the lifting of intensified production restrictions in the nation's top steelmaking city of Tangshan. 

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BULLION - Bullion counter may trade on weaker path as gold prices witnessed sharp decline in the previous session, while investors awaited U.S. economic growth data due later in the day that could provide clues about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting. Gold fell on Thursday after data showed that weekly U.S. jobless claims number fell to a three-month low last week, pointing to strength in the labor market, while new orders for key U.S.-made capital goods surged 1.9 % in June. Market participants are now looking ahead to the U.S. central bank's July 30-31 monetary policy meeting where it is expected to trim its interest rate by at least 25 basis points. U.S. Treasury yields following rosier-than-expected economic sentiment from the European Central Bank. The ECB signalled its intention to explore monetary easing, but left interest rates unchanged, and bank President Mario Draghi struck a more upbeat tone on the economy than investors expected. The ECB signalled its intention to explore monetary easing, but left interest rates unchanged, and bank President Mario Draghi struck a more upbeat tone on the economy than investors expected.

ENERGY- Crude oil may trade on weaker path as oil prices fell after a Reuters poll showed global economic growth is likely to slow further amid the U.S.-China trade war, although losses were limited by tensions in the Middle East. A global economic growth rut risks deepening, despite expectations that major central banks will cut rates or ease policy further, according to Reuters polls of over 500 economists who remain worried about the U.S.-China trade war. Increasing pessimism is clear from the latest polls taken July 1-24, which show the growth outlook for nearly 90% of over 45 economies polled was either downgraded or left unchanged. That applied not just to this year but also 2020. While concerns over Middle East supply disruptions have led to recent price spikes, oil has generally been under pressure from worries about global economic growth amid growing signs of harm from the rumbling Sino-U.S. trade war over the past year. U.S. natural gas futures gained over 1% on Thursday following the release of a report showing a smaller-than-usual storage build last week and forecasts for slightly higher demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.

BASE METAL - Base metals may trade on subdued path. Copper prices dropped on Friday, on track for their first weekly decline in three, as comments from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi were less dovish than hoped after the bank held rates steady at its latest meeting. An aggressive easing by a major central bank generally supports growth and helps lift metal prices. Perus president said his government will re-evaluate its recent decision to grant a construction permit to Southern Copper Corp for its proposed mine Tia Maria at the request of local authorities calling for its annulment. The European Central Bank (ECB) signalled its intention to explore monetary easing but left interest rates unchanged on Thursday. Lead negotiators for China and the United States will meet in Shanghai on Tuesday for two days in the next round of trade talks aimed to end their year-long trade war, Chinas commerce ministry confirmed. 

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BULLION - Bullion counter may trade on weaker path as gold prices edged lower on Thursday as the U.S. dollar hovered near multi-week highs, while investors awaited clues on monetary policy easing from leading central banks to shore up global economy. Investor focus shifted to the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting due later in the day and a widely expected interest rate cut from the U.S. Federal Reserve next week, which are expected to dictate the tempo for currencies and bond yields in coming months. In the United States, manufacturing activity slowed to a 10-year low in early July with production volumes and purchases falling. Weak housing and manufacturing are offsetting strong consumer spending, holding back the economy and posing a threat to the longest expansion in history. SPDR Gold Trust GLD, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings dropped 0.11% to 822.25 tonnes on Wednesday from 823.13 tonnes on Tuesday.

ENERGY- Crude oil may trade on weaker path as oil ticked lower early on Thursday as more signs of slowing global growth added to demand concerns, with Middle East tensions underpinning prices. Sentiment in the oil market has darkened as investors worry that slowing global economic growth will weaken demand for oil. A series of purchasing manager index readings in the United States and Europe were weaker than expected, confirming concerns about slower economic growth amid a trade war between the United States and China. Global growth concerns are driving energy prices lower as forecasts keep getting downgraded even as the U.S. will be sending a trade team to China next week. Set against those worries are ongoing tensions in the Middle East following the seizure of a British-flagged tanker in the Gulf by Iranian forces last week. Britain, meanwhile, gained initial support from France, Italy and Denmark for its plan for a European-led naval mission to ensure safe shipping in the Gulf. U.S. natural gas futures fell on Wednesday to their lowest level in over a month on forecasts for cooler weather over the next two weeks than previously forecast.

BASE METAL - Base metals may trade on subdued path. Top U.S. and Chinese negotiators will meet face-to-face next week for the first time since Donald Trump and Xi Jinping agreed to revive talks to end their year-long trade war. Shanghai lead rose on Thursday, tracking a rally in London prices overnight, following concerns of supply shortages amid some maintenance activities in China. Three-month lead on the London Metal Exchange (LME) jumped 2.6% on Wednesday, its strongest gain in more than six weeks, as lead stockpiles in LME-approved warehouses fell to a fresh decade low of 57,425 tonnes. The difference between the LME cash lead contract over the three-month lead contract flipped to a premium of $1.5 a tonne on Wednesday, indicating near-term supply shortage. The shutdown of 1.5 million tonnes-per-year of alumina refining capacity in China will curb oversupply of the aluminium raw material and see prices currently languishing near two-year lows reach a bottom.

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BULLION - Bullion counter may trade on mixed path. Gold prices edged higher on Wednesday, recovering from a one-week low touched in the previous session, on expectations of an interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve and escalating tensions in the Middle East. The European Central Bank is expected to signal easier monetary policy at its meeting this week, while the Turkish central bank is expected to make a 250 bp cut on July 25. A U.S. Navy ship took defensive action against a second Iranian drone in the Strait of Hormuz last week, but did not see the drone go into the water, the U.S. military said on Tuesday. U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and senior U.S. officials will travel to Shanghai on Monday for face-to-face trade meetings with Chinese officials, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday, citing unnamed sources. Futures Fed watch remain 100% priced for a rate cut of 25 basis points (bps) by the Fed next week, and have even priced in an 18% chance of a 50 bp cut.

ENERGY- Crude oil may trade on positive path as oil prices rose on Wednesday, extending gains after an industry group reported a much bigger than expected drop in U.S. inventories, while the U.S. Navy said it may have downed a second Iranian drone last week. U.S. crude stocks fell more than expected in the week to July 19, declining by 11 million barrels to 449 million, the trade group American Petroleum Institute said on Tuesday. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub fell by 448,000 barrels, although gasoline stocks rose by 4.4 million barrels, compared with analysts expectations for a 730,000-barrel decline. Signs of rising tensions in the Middle East offset a weaker global growth outlook from the International Monetary Fund, which had kept prices largely flat for much of Tuesdays session. Irans capture of a British oil tanker last week sparked worries about supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the worlds oil flows. The tensions come as the United States aims to cut off Irans oil exports and against the backdrop of supply cuts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries since the start of the year to prop up prices. U.S. natural gas futures eased on Tuesday on forecasts for slightly cooler weather and lower demand over the next two weeks than previously forecast.

BASE METAL - Base metals may trade with upside path. Industrial metals on the London Metal Exchange advanced on Wednesday on reports of potential progress in trade negotiations between the United States and China. The trade war between the world's two biggest economies has weighed on global economic growth and dimmed demand outlook for industrial metals. A sign of progress in resolving the dispute often supports prices of base metals. China's central bank governor Yi Gang said the country's current interest rate level is appropriate, the financial magazine Caixin reported on Tuesday. Global aluminium production fell by 0.5% in the first half of this year, according to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI). Chinese output fell by 3.1% in June and by 0.4% over the first six months of the year, according to the IAI. Alcoa, which operates the Canadian smelter, expects the return to full capacity to be achieved in the second quarter of 2020.

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BULLION - Bullion counter may trade on weaker path as gold prices fell in early Asian trade on Tuesday as the dollar rose to a near one-week high on expectation of a smaller interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve at the end of this month. The U.S. central bank is widely expected to lower its interest rate target range of 2.25%-2.50% by 25 basis points at a meeting ending July 31, but expectations for a larger 50-basis point cut have waxed and waned due to mixed signals from Fed policymakers. The global march towards lower interest rates reaches Europe this week with the European Central Bank expected at least to signal easier monetary policy. Expectations of policy easing by major central banks such as the Fed propped up global stocks on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Sterling was on the back foot on Tuesday as investors worried Boris Johnson, the front runner to become the UK's next prime minister, would trigger a "hard Brexit" from the European Union. 

ENERGY- Crude oil may trade on mixed path as oil prices inched lower on Tuesday as the International Energy Agency (IEA) said it would act quickly if needed to keep the market supplied amid tensions in the Middle East and traders eyed a weaker demand outlook. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said it was closely monitoring developments in the Strait of Hormuz. Consumers can be reassured that the oil market is currently well supplied, with oil production exceeding demand in the first half of 2019, pushing up global stocks by 900,000 barrels per day, the IEA said in a statement. The potential for disruption in the Middle East has come amid a more fundamental souring of market sentiment in recent days, with hedge funds, producers and traders all taking a more bearish tack in response to what they see as weakness in worldwide demand. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and some non-affiliated producers including Russia, known collectively as OPEC+, have withheld supplies since the start of the year to prop up prices. U.S. natural gas futures gained almost 3% on Monday as forecasts for hotter weather and higher cooling demand next week lifted prices from two-week lows hit last week.

BASE METAL - Base metals may trade with upside path. Most base metals rose on the LME, but lost ground on the Shanghai Futures Exchange as investors eyed monetary policies from major central banks, including a highly expected policy easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Expectations of policy easing by major central banks such as the Federal Reserve propped up global stocks. The global world refined copper market showed a 96,000 tonnes deficit in April, compared with a 42,000 tonnes deficit in March, the International Copper Study Group said in its latest monthly bulletin. London nickel prices rebounded on Tuesday after two sessions of declines, hovering around a one-year peak, while the base metals complex was broadly higher. Global primary aluminum output fell to 5.246 million tonnes in June from revised 5.406 million tonnes in May, data from the International Aluminium Institute showed on Monday.

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