BULLION - Bullion counter may remain on firm path as gold prices rose on Friday, holding above the key $1,500 per ounce pivot, as fresh concerns about the U.S.-China trade dispute and worries over global economic slowdown lifted demand for the safe-haven metal. Trade tensions between the United States and China further escalated after a report that Washington is delaying a decision about licenses for U.S. firms to restart trade with Huawei Technologies. Meanwhile, U.S. economic data pointed to a robust labor market as the number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, allaying some worries about the potential for a recession and helping U.S. Treasury yields rise. Central banks in New Zealand, Thailand and India stunned financial markets on Wednesday with a series of surprising interest rate cuts and pointing to policymakers dwindling ammunition to fight off a downturn.

ENERGY- Crude oil may trade with positive path as oil prices rose on Friday, supported by expectations of more production cuts by OPEC amid fears the U.S.-China trade row could lead to a global slowdown, curbing demand for crude. Both contracts jumped more than 2% on Thursday to recover from January lows, buoyed by reports that Saudi Arabia, the worlds biggest oil exporter, had called other producers to discuss the recent slide in crude prices. Oil prices have still lost more than 20% from their peaks reached in April, putting them in bear territory. Global financial markets were rocked over the past week after U.S. President Donald Trump said he would impose 10% tariffs on Chinese goods starting September and a fall in the Chinese yuan sparked fears of a currency war. Saudi Arabia, de facto leader of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), planned to maintain its crude oil exports below 7 million barrels per day in August and September to bring the market back to balance and help absorb global oil inventories, a Saudi oil official said on Wednesday. U.S. natural gas demand is at an all-time high and expected to keep rising - and yet, prices are falling. U.S. gas futures this week collapsed to a three-year low, while spot prices were on track to post their weakest summer in over 20 years. In other markets, such lackluster pricing would cause investment to retrench and supply to contract.

BASE METAL - Base metals may trade on sideways to weaker path. Anti-mining protests in Peru have held up about $400 million in copper exports from some of the country's top mines and blocked supplies from reaching their operations for nearly three weeks, port operator Tisur said. Copper production in Democratic Republic of Congo rose 12.5% in the first half of the year from a year earlier to 672,272 tonnes, according to Central Bank figures. London nickel prices eased in early trade on Friday, slipping from a 16-month high struck in the previous session, after Indonesia's nickel miners association said it had urged the government not to bring forward a ban on mineral ore exports. Russian aluminium giant Rusal said on Friday lifting the share of high value-added products in its sales might prove to be tough in coming months due to the weaker market for the metal, which caused a 38% slump in its first-half net profit.

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BULLION - Gold (Oct) can test 35020 while taking resistance near 35510 and silver (Sep) can dip lower towards 40500 and resistance near 41300. The price of gold shot up from about 34040 to around 35630 as investor flocked into gold as yields plummeted following the increase in tariffs between the US and China. Trump said he would impose an additional 10% tariff on $300 billion worth of Chinese imports on Sept. 1 after U.S. negotiators returned from trade talks in Shanghai, saying China had failed to buy large quantities of U.S. agricultural products as promised. Trump also said if trade negotiations fail to progress he could raise tariffs further - even beyond the 25% levy he has already imposed on $250 billion of imports from China. The tariffs may also force the Federal Reserve to again cut interest rates to protect the U.S. economy from trade-policy risk. The October Fed funds rate futures FFV9 have jumped to now fully price in a rate cut in September, compared with only around 60% before the tariff announcement. Another 25 basis point move is priced in by December.

ENERGY- Crude oil may move towards 3650 while taking resistance near 3820. steadying after an overnight plunge following U.S. President Donald Trump’s move to impose more tariffs on Chinese imports, intensifying a trade war that has hit global growth. Brent crude slumped more than 7% on Thursday, its steepest drop in more than three years. U.S. crude fell nearly 8%, posting its worst day in more than four years, The collapse ended a fragile rally built on steady drawdown’s in U.S. inventories, even as global demand looked shaky due to the trade dispute between the world’s two biggest economies. Total U.S. oil demand in May fell 98,000 bpd to 20.26 million bpd, data showed earlier this week. OPEC and partners including Russia, an alliance known as OPEC+, have been curbing output this year to support the market. In July, OPEC production revisited a 2011 low, helped by a further cut by Saudi Arabia. Natural gas can recover towards 158 while taking support near 149. Despite the rally on Wednesday, the hotter trends in the overnight data are still not hot enough to impress and suggests there is still a bearish bias in the market. The rally we say yesterday was probably driven by short-covering due to the slight change in the weather pattern and grossly oversold technical indicators.

BASE METAL - Copper may test 436 while taking resistance near 445. Copper hitting its lowest in over three weeks after U.S. President Donald Trump said he would slap a 10% tariff on the remaining $300 billion of Chinese imports from next month. The reactivation of a smelter belonging to Chile’s state-run Codelco, the world’s top copper producer, will be further delayed until the end of October this year after missing a previous target of April. Copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange dipped 0.6%, aluminium eased 0.2%. Three-month LME copper touched its lowest since July 10 at $5,876 a tonne before paring losses to $5,899, a decline of 0.5%.Zinc and lead dropped 0.8% each. However, nickel rose 1.2% and tin was almost unchanged. Zinc can test 187 while taking resistance near 192. Lead may test 149 while taking resistance near 154. Nickel may rise towards 1040 while taking support near 990. company PT Aneka Tam bang’s nickel ore output in Jan-Jun rose 27% on year to 4.79 mln tn. Aluminum may test 135 while taking resistance near 140.

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BULLION - Bullion counter may trade on weaker path as gold prices witnessed sharp decline in the previous session, while investors awaited U.S. economic growth data due later in the day that could provide clues about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting. Gold fell on Thursday after data showed that weekly U.S. jobless claims number fell to a three-month low last week, pointing to strength in the labor market, while new orders for key U.S.-made capital goods surged 1.9 % in June. Market participants are now looking ahead to the U.S. central bank's July 30-31 monetary policy meeting where it is expected to trim its interest rate by at least 25 basis points. U.S. Treasury yields following rosier-than-expected economic sentiment from the European Central Bank. The ECB signalled its intention to explore monetary easing, but left interest rates unchanged, and bank President Mario Draghi struck a more upbeat tone on the economy than investors expected. The ECB signalled its intention to explore monetary easing, but left interest rates unchanged, and bank President Mario Draghi struck a more upbeat tone on the economy than investors expected.

ENERGY- Crude oil may trade on weaker path as oil prices fell after a Reuters poll showed global economic growth is likely to slow further amid the U.S.-China trade war, although losses were limited by tensions in the Middle East. A global economic growth rut risks deepening, despite expectations that major central banks will cut rates or ease policy further, according to Reuters polls of over 500 economists who remain worried about the U.S.-China trade war. Increasing pessimism is clear from the latest polls taken July 1-24, which show the growth outlook for nearly 90% of over 45 economies polled was either downgraded or left unchanged. That applied not just to this year but also 2020. While concerns over Middle East supply disruptions have led to recent price spikes, oil has generally been under pressure from worries about global economic growth amid growing signs of harm from the rumbling Sino-U.S. trade war over the past year. U.S. natural gas futures gained over 1% on Thursday following the release of a report showing a smaller-than-usual storage build last week and forecasts for slightly higher demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.

BASE METAL - Base metals may trade on subdued path. Copper prices dropped on Friday, on track for their first weekly decline in three, as comments from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi were less dovish than hoped after the bank held rates steady at its latest meeting. An aggressive easing by a major central bank generally supports growth and helps lift metal prices. Perus president said his government will re-evaluate its recent decision to grant a construction permit to Southern Copper Corp for its proposed mine Tia Maria at the request of local authorities calling for its annulment. The European Central Bank (ECB) signalled its intention to explore monetary easing but left interest rates unchanged on Thursday. Lead negotiators for China and the United States will meet in Shanghai on Tuesday for two days in the next round of trade talks aimed to end their year-long trade war, Chinas commerce ministry confirmed. 

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BULLION - Bullion counter may trade on upside path as gold prices rose to their highest in two weeks on Thursday, as the dollar eased after weaker-than-expected U.S. housing data increased expectations for an interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The index had climbed to a one-week peak in the previous session on stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales. But it nudged lower as Treasury yields fell in the wake of weak U.S. housing market data and concerns about the unresolved U.S.-China trade conflict. U.S. homebuilding fell for a second straight month in June and permits dropped to a two-year low, suggesting the housing market continued to struggle despite lower mortgage rates. The Fed is widely expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points at its policy meeting at the end of the month, with some in the market even betting on a 50 basis points cut. The Fed reported on Wednesday that the U.S. economy continued growing at a "modest" rate in recent weeks, with consumers continuing to spend and a "generally positive" outlook overall even in the face of disruptions caused by U.S. trade policy.

ENERGY- Crude oil may trade on weaker path as oil prices fell on Thursday, extending declines into a fourth day, after official data showed U.S. stockpiles of products like gasoline rose sharply last week, suggesting weak demand during the peak driving season. While data on Wednesday from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed a larger-than-expected drawdown in crude stockpiles last week, traders focused on large builds in refined product inventories dragging prices down. U.S. crude inventories fell 3.1 million barrels, the EIA said, more than analysts forecasts for a decrease of 2.7 million barrels. However, gasoline stocks rose 3.6 million barrels, compared with analysts expectations for a 925,000-barrel drop. Distillate stockpiles grew by 5.7 million barrels, much more than expectations for a 613,000-barrel increase, the EIA data showed. Crude production was disrupted last week by Storm Barry, which came ashore on Saturday in central Louisiana as a Category 1 hurricane, the first major storm to hit the U.S. Gulf of Mexico this season.

BASE METAL - Base metals may trade with upside path. LME copper slipped 0.3% to $5,965 a tonne after U.S.-China trade war concerns returned in the previous session. ShFE copper fell 0.5% to 49,760 yuan a tonne. China's top copper smelters meet in the city of Hunchun on Thursday to set their floor treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) for the third quarter. Shanghai nickel prices rose more than 4% in early trade on Thursday to a one-year high, extending a rally for the metal into a ninth day as speculators continue to pile into the Shanghai Futures Exchange. Nickel, used to make stainless steel and batteries for electric vehicles, is now up more than 30% since the start of this year in Shanghai and is almost 37% higher in London. U.S. aluminium producer Alcoa says global aluminium demand growth for 2019 is estimated to range between 1.25%- 2.25% and continues to project a global aluminium deficit of 1 million-1.4 million tonnes this year.

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BULLION - Bullion counter may witness some profit booking at higher levels. Gold on Thursday hovered near a two-week peak touched in the previous session, as the dollar struggled after the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank signaled steady interest rates amid a slowing global economy. The dollar held near two-week lows as Fed minutes reinforced dovish policy expectations while the pound held recent ranges after European leaders extended the deadline for Britain to leave the union, averting a no-deal Brexit. The Fed is likely to leave interest rates unchanged this year given risks to the U.S. economy from a global slowdown and uncertainty over trade policies and financial conditions, according to the minutes from its March 19-20 policy meeting. U.S. consumer prices increased by the most in 14 months in March, but the underlying inflation trend remained benign amid slowing domestic and global economic growth. European Union leaders agreed to grant British Prime Minister Theresa May a new Brexit deadline of Oct. 31, officials said, after French President Emmanuel Macron opposed efforts to give her another year.

ENERGY- Crude oil may trade lower as oil prices fell on Thursday after U.S. crude stockpiles surged to their highest levels in almost 17 months amid record production. U.S. crude inventories rose 7 million barrels to 456.6 million barrels in the last week, their highest since November 2017, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. U.S. crude oil production EIA remained at a record 12.2 million barrels per day (bpd), making the United States the world biggest oil producer ahead of Russia and Saudi Arabia. Despite this growth in U.S. supply, global oil markets remain tight amid supply cuts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), U.S. sanctions on oil exporters Iran and Venezuela, and escalating fighting in Libya. Venezuela oil output sank to a new long-term low last month due to U.S. sanctions and blackouts, with production plunging to 960,000 bpd in March, a drop of almost 500,000 bpd from February. U.S. natural gas futures gained less than a penny on Wednesday as declining output offset forecasts for cooler weather and less heating demand next week.

BASE METAL - Base metals prices may trade with negative bias. London copper on Thursday was almost unchanged, as support from progressing U.S.-China trade talks was countered by rising supply and concerns about a global slowdown. Copper stockpiles in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange stayed at 257,320 tonnes by the end of last week, up from around 100,000 tonnes at the beginning of this year. Chinese miner MMG Ltd has sent some supplies and personnel to its copper mine Las Bambas after protesters in Peru partially suspended their two-month road blockades, a company source said on Wednesday. Chile Codelco, the world biggest copper producer, is set to shell out $40 billion in 10 years to overhaul its century-old Chuquicamata and El Teniente mines.  

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