BULLION - Bullion counter may remain on firm path as gold prices gained on Tuesday, hovering near a more than six-year high hit the previous day, as concerns around protests in Hong Kong, a slump in Argentina's markets and the ongoing Sino-U.S. trade war dented risk appetite. Protesters managed to shut down Hong Kong's airport, the world's busiest cargo airport, on Monday. Fears of a possible return to interventionist policies, gripped the Argentine market after market-friendly President Mauricio Macri lost by a much wider-than-expected margin in presidential primaries.. Investors are focused on the Federal Reserve's annual symposium next week. Traders see a 74% chance of a 25 basis-point rate cut by the Fed this September.

ENERGY- Crude oil may trade with negative path as oil prices slipped on Tuesday, offsetting narrow gains in the previous session, as sluggish demand forecasts countered expectations that major producers would prop up oil prices by limiting crude oil output. U.S. oil output from seven major shale formations is expected to rise by 85,000 barrels per day (bpd) in September, to a record 8.77 million bpd, the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecast in its monthly drilling productivity report on Monday. Saudi Arabia, the de-facto leader of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), said late last week it plans to keep its crude oil exports below 7 million barrels per day in August and September to help drain global oil inventories. Saudi Aramco was ready for its IPO, but the timing for the deal will be decided by its sole shareholder, the Saudi government, a senior executive said on Monday. U.S. natural gas futures eased on Monday as the market focused more on an increase in production to record levels as opposed to forecasts for more demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.

BASE METAL - Base metals may trade on sideways to weaker path. China's banks extended surprisingly fewer new yuan loans in July, while growth of money supply and total social financing also slowed, raising pressure on the central bank to ease policy further to support the slowing economy. Lead prices touched a two-week high on Monday after Belgium-listed Nyrstar said it had stopped production at its Port Pirie smelter in Australia, raising fears of shortages of the metal mainly used in car batteries. The stoppage is the second this year at the lead smelter and follows an outage in June and July, when 30,000 tonnes of metal were lost in the 12 million tonne market. Shanghai aluminum rose to its highest in more than two months on Tuesday, as a typhoon in China affected the world's top aluminum producer, raising concerns about supply disruptions. Facilities belonging to China Hongqiao Group 1378.HK were damaged by flooding after Typhoon Lekima wreaked havoc in the smelting heartland of Shandong, according to a statement from an affiliate firm. Indonesia aims to speed up enforcement of a ban on mineral ore exports that is currently due to come into force in 2020, news website Detik.com quoted coordinating minister for maritime affairs Luhut Pandjaitan as saying on Monday.

 

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BULLION - Bullion counter may remain on firm path as gold prices rose on Friday, holding above the key $1,500 per ounce pivot, as fresh concerns about the U.S.-China trade dispute and worries over global economic slowdown lifted demand for the safe-haven metal. Trade tensions between the United States and China further escalated after a report that Washington is delaying a decision about licenses for U.S. firms to restart trade with Huawei Technologies. Meanwhile, U.S. economic data pointed to a robust labor market as the number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, allaying some worries about the potential for a recession and helping U.S. Treasury yields rise. Central banks in New Zealand, Thailand and India stunned financial markets on Wednesday with a series of surprising interest rate cuts and pointing to policymakers dwindling ammunition to fight off a downturn.

ENERGY- Crude oil may trade with positive path as oil prices rose on Friday, supported by expectations of more production cuts by OPEC amid fears the U.S.-China trade row could lead to a global slowdown, curbing demand for crude. Both contracts jumped more than 2% on Thursday to recover from January lows, buoyed by reports that Saudi Arabia, the worlds biggest oil exporter, had called other producers to discuss the recent slide in crude prices. Oil prices have still lost more than 20% from their peaks reached in April, putting them in bear territory. Global financial markets were rocked over the past week after U.S. President Donald Trump said he would impose 10% tariffs on Chinese goods starting September and a fall in the Chinese yuan sparked fears of a currency war. Saudi Arabia, de facto leader of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), planned to maintain its crude oil exports below 7 million barrels per day in August and September to bring the market back to balance and help absorb global oil inventories, a Saudi oil official said on Wednesday. U.S. natural gas demand is at an all-time high and expected to keep rising - and yet, prices are falling. U.S. gas futures this week collapsed to a three-year low, while spot prices were on track to post their weakest summer in over 20 years. In other markets, such lackluster pricing would cause investment to retrench and supply to contract.

BASE METAL - Base metals may trade on sideways to weaker path. Anti-mining protests in Peru have held up about $400 million in copper exports from some of the country's top mines and blocked supplies from reaching their operations for nearly three weeks, port operator Tisur said. Copper production in Democratic Republic of Congo rose 12.5% in the first half of the year from a year earlier to 672,272 tonnes, according to Central Bank figures. London nickel prices eased in early trade on Friday, slipping from a 16-month high struck in the previous session, after Indonesia's nickel miners association said it had urged the government not to bring forward a ban on mineral ore exports. Russian aluminium giant Rusal said on Friday lifting the share of high value-added products in its sales might prove to be tough in coming months due to the weaker market for the metal, which caused a 38% slump in its first-half net profit.

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BULLION - Bullion counter may witness some profit booking at higher levels. Gold prices continued to rise recently as the protracted trade war between the United States and China intensified after Washington designated Beijing a currency manipulator, prompting a flight towards safe-haven assets. The U.S. Treasury Department said on Monday it had determined for the first time since 1994 that China was manipulating its currency, and that Washington would engage the International Monetary Fund to eliminate unfair competition from Beijing. The U.S. action comes after China allowed its yuan to weaken past the key 7-per-dollar level on Monday for the first time in more than a decade, following Trump's decision to impose 10% tariffs on $300 billion of Chinese imports, ending a month-long trade truce. Gold priced in sterling soared to a record high on Monday, spurred by fear of a disorderly British exit from the European Union amidst trade tensions.

ENERGY- Crude oil may trade on firm path as oil prices edged up on Tuesday, but remained under pressure as the escalating U.S.-China trade war stoked concerns over global economic growth and future demand for crude. The international benchmark fell more than 3% on Monday as traders worried the ongoing trade tensions between the worlds two biggest oil buyers would dent appetite for fuel. A yearlong U.S.-China trade war boiled over as Washington accused Beijing of manipulating its currency after China let the yuan drop to its lowest point in more than a decade. Irans seizure of the Iraqi oil tanker had raised some concerns about potential Middle East supply disruptions in the Gulf. Concerns that the trade conflict has entered a phase of retaliatory action were weighing down on the sentiments in the oil market, which at the moment is taking lesser notice of the Middle East tensions. U.S. natural gas futures fell to a fresh 38-month low on Monday after production rose to record highs over the weekend and the amount of gas flowing to the nation's liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals dropped.

BASE METAL - Base metals may trade on sideways to weaker path. London copper fell for the sixth straight session on Tuesday, hovering around a two-year low, as a year-long U.S.-China trade war escalated and the Chinese offshore yuan fell to an all-time low. Proposed U.S. tariffs against the European Union over aircraft subsidies could concentrate market control over some supplies of copper alloy in the hands of a German-owned firm and hurt American businesses, U.S. industry players said. BHP Group is expanding its nickel business and plans to ramp up sales for the fast-growing electric vehicle sector. Russian aluminium producer Rusal suspended operations at its Achinsk alumina plant on Monday and evacuated all but essential staff after a fire broke out a nearby Russian military base, Rusal said.

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BULLION - Bullion counter may trade on upside path as gold prices rose to their highest in two weeks on Thursday, as the dollar eased after weaker-than-expected U.S. housing data increased expectations for an interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The index had climbed to a one-week peak in the previous session on stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales. But it nudged lower as Treasury yields fell in the wake of weak U.S. housing market data and concerns about the unresolved U.S.-China trade conflict. U.S. homebuilding fell for a second straight month in June and permits dropped to a two-year low, suggesting the housing market continued to struggle despite lower mortgage rates. The Fed is widely expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points at its policy meeting at the end of the month, with some in the market even betting on a 50 basis points cut. The Fed reported on Wednesday that the U.S. economy continued growing at a "modest" rate in recent weeks, with consumers continuing to spend and a "generally positive" outlook overall even in the face of disruptions caused by U.S. trade policy.

ENERGY- Crude oil may trade on weaker path as oil prices fell on Thursday, extending declines into a fourth day, after official data showed U.S. stockpiles of products like gasoline rose sharply last week, suggesting weak demand during the peak driving season. While data on Wednesday from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed a larger-than-expected drawdown in crude stockpiles last week, traders focused on large builds in refined product inventories dragging prices down. U.S. crude inventories fell 3.1 million barrels, the EIA said, more than analysts forecasts for a decrease of 2.7 million barrels. However, gasoline stocks rose 3.6 million barrels, compared with analysts expectations for a 925,000-barrel drop. Distillate stockpiles grew by 5.7 million barrels, much more than expectations for a 613,000-barrel increase, the EIA data showed. Crude production was disrupted last week by Storm Barry, which came ashore on Saturday in central Louisiana as a Category 1 hurricane, the first major storm to hit the U.S. Gulf of Mexico this season.

BASE METAL - Base metals may trade with upside path. LME copper slipped 0.3% to $5,965 a tonne after U.S.-China trade war concerns returned in the previous session. ShFE copper fell 0.5% to 49,760 yuan a tonne. China's top copper smelters meet in the city of Hunchun on Thursday to set their floor treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) for the third quarter. Shanghai nickel prices rose more than 4% in early trade on Thursday to a one-year high, extending a rally for the metal into a ninth day as speculators continue to pile into the Shanghai Futures Exchange. Nickel, used to make stainless steel and batteries for electric vehicles, is now up more than 30% since the start of this year in Shanghai and is almost 37% higher in London. U.S. aluminium producer Alcoa says global aluminium demand growth for 2019 is estimated to range between 1.25%- 2.25% and continues to project a global aluminium deficit of 1 million-1.4 million tonnes this year.

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BULLION - Bullion counter may trade on the weaker bias on stronger local currency rupee amid expectation of clear majority to the present government in the exit polls. Gold steadied on Monday after four days of falls, as a Sino-U.S. trade dispute aggravated by a Huawei ban and U.S. President Donald Trump'ss latest threat to Tehran fuelled interest in the safe-haven metal. Gold fell to a two-week low of $1,274.51 an ounce on Friday after data showed U.S. consumer sentiment jumped to a 15-year high in early May amid growing confidence over the economy's outlook. U.S. President Donald Trump issued a new threat to Tehran on Sunday, tweeting that a conflict would be the official end of Iran, as Saudi Arabia warned it stood ready to respond with all strength's and said it was up to Iran to avoid war. SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings rose 0.4% to 736.17 tonnes on Friday from 733.23 tonnes on Thursday. Hedge funds and money managers raised their net long positions in COMEX gold in the week to May 14, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said on Friday.

ENERGY- Crude oil may trade with an upside bias as oil prices jumped as much as 1 percent on Monday after Saudi Energy Minister Khalid alFalih indicated there was a consensus among OPEC and allied oil producers to continue limiting supplies. The rally came after Falih said on Sunday there was a consensus among Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other non-OPEC producers to drive down crude inventories gently's '', but his country would remain responsive to the needs of what he called a fragile market. OPEC, Russia and other non-member producers, an alliance known as OPEC+, agreed to reduce output by 1.2 million barrels per day from Jan. 1 for six months, a deal designed to stop inventories building up and prices weakening. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $63.39 per barrel, up 63 cents, or 1%, from their previous settlement. 

BASE METAL - Base metals may remain with a weak bias on the stronger rupee. Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange rose in early Asian trading on Monday after last week's slump, but Shanghai industrial metals edged down as investors remained wary about the intensifying U.S.-China trade war. Beijing has called on Washington to show "sincerity" if it is to hold meaningful trade talks, after the United States put China's Huawei Technologies Co Ltd [RIC:RIC: HWT.UL], the world's biggest telecoms equipment maker, on a trade blacklist. Zambia, Africa's second-biggest copper producer, is introducing a new non-refundable sales tax in place of value-added tax, despite criticism from mining companies. The United States struck deals on Friday to lift tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from Canada and Mexico, the three governments said, removing a major obstacle to legislative approval of a new North American trade pact.

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The upside in turmeric futures (Apr) may remain restricted near 6400 levels. 

 CAPITALSTARS INVESTMENT ADVISER

Thenew crop arriving in the key producing regions of Tamil Nadu and Telangana in addition with expectation of a higher crop may keep the upside capped. The deficiency of cultivation area in Telangana & Tamil Nadu has been covered up by Maharashtra, where the area under turmeric has increased substantially this year and hence they are expecting an increase of 15 per cent in turmeric production in 2018-19. Also, the demand is sluggish mainly due to the higher moisture content in the produce being brought by farmers to the markets. According to the marketparticipants this season there is hardly any demand, whereas normally, it comes in from January 15 and peaks during March. Jeera futures (Mar) is seen taking a Uturn upside towards 15880-16000, forming a base near 15400 levels. Taking advantage of lower level buying the market participants have started taking long positions as this season India has become the sole supplier of jeera to the world. The competitive producers Syria & Turkey are getting washed out of trade & uncompetitive in the export market. The exporters are getting ready to begin their buying spree quality of this year crop is expected to be good. With arrivals of the new crop expected by mid-February and prices already moving higher, the sentiments are turning to be bullish. Coriander futures (Apr) will possibly trade range bound within 6065-6320 levels. The downside may remain capped as the spot markets in in Rajasthan, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh are sending positive signals since the farmers are not interested in bringing their produce in mandis at existing lower prices. 

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Cotton futures (Feb) is likely to plunge further towards 20100-20000 levels. 

                CAPITALSTARS INVESTMENT ADVISER

Cottonprices moved lower in Punjab, Haryana and upper Rajasthan, tracking weakness in US natural fiber. Sharp decline in domestic futures along with higher output estimate in China also weighed on spot prices. Worries about a looming March 1 deadline for a US-China trade agreement also dragged prices lower. Meanwhile, negotiators from the United States and China, the world's top soybean buyer, are trying to hammer out a trade deal before a March 1 deadline, when US tariffs on USD 200 billion worth of Chinese imports are scheduled to increase to 25 percent from 10 percent. Guar seed futures (Mar) may face resistance near 4300 levels, while guar gum futures (Mar) is expected to remain below 8520 levels. The weekon-week declining ratio of guar seed to guar gum is depicting the fact that demand for these commodities are decreasing. Chana futures (Mar) is expected to test 4335 levels on the higher side. The counter is trading higher at major markets in the country following firm cues from fresh physical trade activity at lower rates. Flour millers are actively purchasing chana due to cheaper prices and easy availability compared to White Pea. Moreover, the Cold waves and untimely rains may further damage the standing crop. Mentha oil (Feb) is likely to witness profit booking from higher levels facing resistance near 1650. However, overall sentiments are bullish as delayed sowing in the state is likely to affect the crop yield. As per reports, farmers are now worried as untimely rains and inclement weather conditions have delayed the sowing in key producing belts. The production is likely to be badly affected if weather conditions don't improve in the next few days. 

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Soybean futures (Mar) may face resistance near 3785 levels & trade with a negative bias. 

CAPITALSTARS INVESTMENT ADVISER

India’s soybean output is likely to rise by a staggering 38 per cent this year on a sharp increase in average yield across the country, following favourable climatic condition in major cultivating states including Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Rajasthan. Data captured through the latest assessment of farmers, traders and other stakeholders by the apex industry body the Soybean Processors’ Association (SOPA) showed India’s total soybean output standing at 11.48 million tonnes during the ongoing harvesting season as compared to 8.36 million tonnes in the previous season. Mustard futures (Apr) is expected to consolidate in the range of 3900-3940 levels. Heavy rains and hailstorms that lashed north-western India last week have caused damage to the oilseed. Ref. soy oil futures (Mar) is expected to trade with a negative bias & test 755 levels. The market participants are expecting huge soyoil imports near to 4 lakh tons in month of Feb. Bulk stocks shall continue to add pressure on market sentiments. CPO futures (Feb) may fall further & test 553 levels. Malaysian palm oil futures closed lower on Wednesday for a fourth consecutive session on back of weaker U.S. soyoil, reversing gains. The benchmark palm oil contract for April delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell 0.2 percent to 2,250 ringgit ($554) a tonne at the close. In news, The U.S. soybean processing pace slowed slightly in January from the previous month, although the crush was still the largest on record for the first month of the year, according to analysts polled ahead of a monthly National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) report. The monthly NOPA report will be released at 11 a.m. CST (1700 GMT) on Friday.

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Turmeric futures (Apr) is expected to take support near 6280 levels & witness short covering taking positive cues from the spot markets.

CAPITALSTARS INVESTMENT ADVISOR

Arrivals of new turmeric to the markets in Erode increased. The price of finger and root varieties of new turmeric, too, improved. The traders have purchased all the arrivals. The arrivals to improve further from next week and the traders may buy more as they have received some fresh upcountry demand. Jeera futures (Mar) is expected to rally towards 15700- 15800 levels, taking support near 15540. Spot jeera prices continued to rule steady at major markets in Gujarat in limited trade on Tuesday id matching demand and supply. This season, Gujarat has witnessed lower sowing, but due to cool weather persisting for a longer time, the yields are expected to get better. In Rajasthan, the climatic conditions are also proving to be beneficial for the standing crop & hence the production is likely to be higher. Coriander futures (Apr) is expected to plunge towards 6000-5900 levels. Spot coriander prices are trading with a bearish bias at major markets in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan due to heavy arrivals from the ample old stocks. While, prices quoted lower at major markets in Gujarat due to increased arrivals & having higher moisture content. On the other hand, there was no report of new crop arrival in Madhya Pradesh.

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