BULLION - Bullion counter may remain on firm path as gold prices edged up on Wednesday as the ongoing trade tensions between the United States and China continued to boost the appeal of safe-haven assets. Gold prices rose again on Thursday after topping the $1,500 mark in the previous session, as central banks around the world slashed interest rates amidst fears of a global recession. Spot gold rose 0.3% to $1,505 per ounce as of 0104 GMT. On Wednesday, gold soared over 2% to break the $1,500 barrier for the first time in over six years. U.S. gold futures were down 0.3% at $1,515.30 an ounce. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans signaled on Wednesday he was open to lowering rates to bolster inflation and to counter risks to economic growth. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields dropped further below three-month rates, an inversion that has reliably predicted recessions in the past. Central banks in New Zealand, India and Thailand surprised markets with aggressive easing on Wednesday. The Philippines central bank is expected to cut later today.

ENERGY- Oil futures jumped more than $1 a barrel on Thursday amid a weaker dollar, recovering ground after concerns that a global economic slowdown would hurt crude demand sparked losses of over 4% in the previous session. Brent crude had rebounded to $57.52 a barrel, up $1.29, or 2.29%, from its last close by 0032 GMT, while U.S. crude futures jumped $1.30, or 2.54%, to $52.39 a barrel. Both contracts hit their lowest levels since January on Wednesday after a surprise build in U.S. crude inventories added to worries that the brewing Sino-U.S. trade war could further dampen demand-growth this year. Bloomberg News reported the Saudis have decided the market slump is intolerable and all options are on the table. Trade war rhetoric will continue to guide markets, but the comments from Saudi Arabia could lead to unprecedented action to stabilise prices.. U.S. natural gas futures for Wednesday slipped close to a 38-month low with a 5% drop in crude prices and forecasts for less gas demand next week than previously expected. With less hot weather expected through late August, Refinitiv forecast demand in the Lower 48 states would slide to 89.8 bcfd next week from 91.7 bcfd this week as power generators burn less gas to keep air conditioners running.

BASE METAL - Base metals may trade on sideways to weaker path. Markets fear an escalation in the trade war could negatively affect metals demand China, the world's second largest economy. U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday said his tough stance on China's economic and trade policies would ultimately benefit the American economy, even as Beijing signaled it could strike back by curbing sales of chemicals known as rare earths that are used in everything from iPhones to military equipment. China consumes nearly half of all industrial metals. Coppers three-month price was weaker over the afternoon, falling to an intraday low of $5,665 per tonne, before closing at $5,705 per tonne. On the international market, zincs three-month price settled at $2,261 per tonne on Wednesday, its lowest price since October 2016. Nickels three-month price on the London Metal Exchange rallied by around 3% after the close of trading on Wednesday August 7, reaching a year-to-date high of $15,500 per tonne in what market participants labelled a broadly technical move. 

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BULLION - Gold (Oct) can test 35020 while taking resistance near 35510 and silver (Sep) can dip lower towards 40500 and resistance near 41300. The price of gold shot up from about 34040 to around 35630 as investor flocked into gold as yields plummeted following the increase in tariffs between the US and China. Trump said he would impose an additional 10% tariff on $300 billion worth of Chinese imports on Sept. 1 after U.S. negotiators returned from trade talks in Shanghai, saying China had failed to buy large quantities of U.S. agricultural products as promised. Trump also said if trade negotiations fail to progress he could raise tariffs further - even beyond the 25% levy he has already imposed on $250 billion of imports from China. The tariffs may also force the Federal Reserve to again cut interest rates to protect the U.S. economy from trade-policy risk. The October Fed funds rate futures FFV9 have jumped to now fully price in a rate cut in September, compared with only around 60% before the tariff announcement. Another 25 basis point move is priced in by December.

ENERGY- Crude oil may move towards 3650 while taking resistance near 3820. steadying after an overnight plunge following U.S. President Donald Trump’s move to impose more tariffs on Chinese imports, intensifying a trade war that has hit global growth. Brent crude slumped more than 7% on Thursday, its steepest drop in more than three years. U.S. crude fell nearly 8%, posting its worst day in more than four years, The collapse ended a fragile rally built on steady drawdown’s in U.S. inventories, even as global demand looked shaky due to the trade dispute between the world’s two biggest economies. Total U.S. oil demand in May fell 98,000 bpd to 20.26 million bpd, data showed earlier this week. OPEC and partners including Russia, an alliance known as OPEC+, have been curbing output this year to support the market. In July, OPEC production revisited a 2011 low, helped by a further cut by Saudi Arabia. Natural gas can recover towards 158 while taking support near 149. Despite the rally on Wednesday, the hotter trends in the overnight data are still not hot enough to impress and suggests there is still a bearish bias in the market. The rally we say yesterday was probably driven by short-covering due to the slight change in the weather pattern and grossly oversold technical indicators.

BASE METAL - Copper may test 436 while taking resistance near 445. Copper hitting its lowest in over three weeks after U.S. President Donald Trump said he would slap a 10% tariff on the remaining $300 billion of Chinese imports from next month. The reactivation of a smelter belonging to Chile’s state-run Codelco, the world’s top copper producer, will be further delayed until the end of October this year after missing a previous target of April. Copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange dipped 0.6%, aluminium eased 0.2%. Three-month LME copper touched its lowest since July 10 at $5,876 a tonne before paring losses to $5,899, a decline of 0.5%.Zinc and lead dropped 0.8% each. However, nickel rose 1.2% and tin was almost unchanged. Zinc can test 187 while taking resistance near 192. Lead may test 149 while taking resistance near 154. Nickel may rise towards 1040 while taking support near 990. company PT Aneka Tam bang’s nickel ore output in Jan-Jun rose 27% on year to 4.79 mln tn. Aluminum may test 135 while taking resistance near 140.

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BULLION - Bullion counter may trade on mixed path. Gold prices eased on Tuesday as the dollar held near multi-month highs, while investors awaited outcome of a two-day U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting, where the central bank is widely expected to reduce interest rates. The dollar was up 0.1%, hovering near a two-month high hit in the previous session, making gold expensive for holder of other currencies. The U.S. Fed begins a two-day policy meeting later on Tuesday, at which it is widely expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points. If implemented, it would be the central banks first rate cut in a decade. Japans central bank is expected to keep monetary policy on hold at a meeting ending later on Tuesday, but some investors say there is a chance Japans central bank could change its forward guidance to reassure traders that rates will remain low.

ENERGY- Crude oil may trade on positive path as oil prices extended overnight gains on Tuesday amid widespread expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates for the first time in more than a decade this week. U.S. central bankers will begin their twoday meeting later in the day and are expected to lower borrowing costs for the first time since the depths of the financial crisis more than a decade ago. U.S. President Donald Trump said a small rate cut is not enough. Economic growth in the United States slowed less than expected in the second quarter, strengthening the outlook for oil consumption but, elsewhere, disappointing economic data has increased concerns about slower growth. Supply risks are still a concern as tensions remained high around the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the worlds oil passes. Tensions spiked between Iran and the West after Iranian commandos seized a British-flagged oil tanker in the Gulf this month in apparent retaliation for the capture of an Iranian tanker by British forces near Gibraltar.

BASE METAL - Base metals may trade on sideways path. Industrial metals traded in tight ranges on Tuesday as investors exercised caution ahead of planned U.S.-China trade talks and a two-day U.S. Federal Reserve meeting starting later today. Meanwhile, U.S. and Chinese officials are due to meet on Tuesday in Shanghai for talks on a year-long trade dispute that has weighed on global economic growth and demand for industrial metals. Expectations for progress at the U.S.-China trade meeting are low, so officials and businesses are hoping Washington and Beijing can at least detail commitments for goodwill gestures and clear the path for future negotiations. Steel futures in China slumped to their lowest in five weeks on Monday ahead of the lifting of intensified production restrictions in the nation's top steelmaking city of Tangshan. 

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BULLION - Bullion counter may trade on sideways to weaker path as gold prices edged lower on Wednesday, but still held above the psychological $1,400 level, as the dollar gained after robust U.S. retail sales tempered fears of a sharp downturn in the world's largest economy. The Commerce Department said retail sales rose 0.4% last month as households stepped up purchases of motor vehicles and a variety of other goods. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales edging up 0.1% in June. However, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday reiterated pledges to "act as appropriate" to keep the U.S. economy humming, in a speech that did not deviate from expectations that a rate cut is on the way. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump said on Tuesday the United States still has a long way to go to conclude a trade deal with China but could impose tariffs on an additional $325 billion worth of Chinese goods if it needed to do so.

ENERGY- Crude oil may trade on weaker path as oil steadied after falling more than 3% overnight, with U.S. crude trailing Brent after U.S. inventory data fell short of expectations, amid conflicting signals from the U.S. and Iran over the disputes that have roiled prices recently. Iran denied it was willing to negotiate over its ballistic missile program, contradicting a claim by U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and appearing to undercut Trumps statement that Washington had made progress on its disputes with Tehran. Tensions between the United States and Iran over Tehrans nuclear program have lent support to oil futures; given the potential for a price spike should the situation deteriorate. Crude inventories fell by 1.4 million barrels in the week to July 12 to 460 million, industry group the American Petroleum Institute said on Tuesday. Still, more than half the daily crude production in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico remained offline on Tuesday in the wake of Hurricane Barry, the U.S. drilling regulator said, as most oil companies were re-staffing facilities to resume production. U.S. natural gas futures on Tuesday fell more than 4%, its biggest daily percentage decline since late January on forecasts for less hot weather through the end of July than previously forecast and a slow return of production from the Gulf of Mexico after Tropical Storm Barry.

BASE METAL - Base metals may trade with mixed path. Peruvian President Martin Vizcarra rejected a demand from a regional governor on Tuesday to cancel a permit for Southern Copper Corps $1.4 billion Tia Maria copper mine project amid protests from local residents. London zinc prices fell on Wednesday, ending a five-session streak of gains, after data showed a global zinc market deficit narrowed in May. The global zinc market deficit narrowed to 27,200 tonnes in May from an upwardly revised deficit of 87,500 tonnes in April, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Zinc inventories in LME-approved warehouses have risen around 60% since April when the stockpiles hit a record low, while stocks in warehouses tracked by ShFE have jumped 268% year-to-date. The global lead market recorded a 13,400-tonne surplus in May after a deficit of 30,800 tonnes in April, data from the ILZSG showed. 

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BULLION - Bullion counter may trade on sideways to weaker path as gold prices were little changed in early Asian trade on Tuesday as investors awaited U.S. retail sales data due later in the day for further clues on policy easing from the Federal Reserve in the face of a global slowdown. The dollar index was relatively unchanged against a basket of major currencies as the prospect of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut later in the month kept the greenback on the defensive. A rate cut this month is seen as certain with interest rate futures traders pricing in a 72% chance of a 25 basis point cut and a 28% likelihood of a 50 basis point cut, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields edged lower on Monday as investors focused on Tuesday's retail sales figures as the next indicator of the strength of the U.S. economy. India's gold imports rose 13.04% to $2.69 billion in June compared with a year earlier, the trade ministry said in a statement on Monday.

ENERGY- Crude oil may trade on weaker path as oil prices fell for a second day on Tuesday as more production facilities returned to operation in the U.S. Gulf after Hurricane Barry swept through over the weekend, while Chinese economic data dimmed the outlook for crude demand. U.S. crude fell by 10 cents, or 0.2% to $59.48 a barrel. The U.S. benchmark fell about 1% in the previous session. Both contracts last week made their biggest weekly gains in three weeks as U.S. oil inventories fell and diplomatic tensions rose in the Middle East. In the U.S. there was 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil production offline in the U.S.-regulated areas of the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, about 80,000 barrels fewer than on Sunday. Workers also were returning to the more than 280 production platforms that had been evacuated. It can take several days for full production to be resumed after a storm leaves the Gulf of Mexico.

BASE METAL - Base metals may trade with mixed path. U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday seized on slowing economic growth in China as evidence that U.S. tariffs were havinga major effect and warned that Washington could pile on more pressure as bilateral trade talks sputtered along. Copper prices took a break from a strong rally on Tuesday after positive industrial output and investment data from top consumer China sent prices to a two-week high in the previous session. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange was almost unchanged at $5,985.50 a tonne by 0229 GMT, while the most-traded copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange advanced 0.3% to 46,930 yuan ($6,827.17) a tonne. Protesters blocked a portion of Perus main coastal highway on Monday in the start of a new challenge to Southern Copper Corps $1.4 billion Tia Maria copper mine project that has been a lightning rod for conflict. 

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BULLION - Bullion counter may trade with sideways to weak bias as gold prices were steady on Thursday, as simmering Sino-U.S. trade tensions underpinned the dollar, while bullion investors looked for a direction after the minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting indicated that there was no hurry in cutting rates. The U.S. administration is considering Huawei-like sanctions on Chinese video surveillance firm Hikvision over the country's treatment of its Uighur Muslim minority, a person briefed on the matter said on Wednesday. Meanwhile, minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve's latest meeting showed that officials agreed their current patient approach to setting monetary policy could remain in place "for some time," further sign policymakers see little need to change rates in either direction. Lackluster investor interest in bullion was reflected in the holdings of SPDR Gold Trust GLD, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund. Holdings have declined nearly 7% so far this year.

ENERGY- Crude oil may remain subdued as oil prices dipped on Thursday, extending bigger falls from the previous session, as surging U.S. crude inventories and weak demand from refineries weighed on markets. However, oil markets still remain relatively well supported by supply cuts led by the OPEC producer cartel and by political tension in the Middle East. U.S. crude oil inventories rose last week, hitting their highest levels since July 2017, due to weak refinery demand, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. Commercial U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 4.7 million barrels in the week ended May 17, to 476.8 million barrels, their highest since July 2017, the EIA data showed. Countering these bearish price factors have been escalating political tensions between the United States and Iran, as well as ongoing supply cuts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) that started in January in an effort to prop up the market. 

BASE METAL - Base metals may remain on a weaker side. China, the world's top metals consumer, is due to report final trade data for April, including scrap metal and alumina import figures, later on Thursday. Shanghai copper and zinc slid to multi-month lows on Thursday as the China base metals complex tracked a broad selloff in London overnight amid Sino-U.S. trade tensions, while President Xi Jinping warned of difficult times ahead. Chinese miner MMG Ltd's operations at its Las Bambas mine, one of Peru's largest copper producers, have not been disrupted and talks with an indigenous Peruvian community are ongoing, the miner said on Wednesday. Zinc used to galvanize steel, fell as much as 1.5% in Shanghai to 20,290 yuan a tonne, the lowest since Feb. 15. Shanghai nickel was down 0.9% at 96,760 yuan a tonne. The global nickel market deficit widened to 12,500 tonnes in March from a revised shortfall of 1,000 tonnes the previous month, the International Nickel Study Group said. 

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BULLION - Bullion counter may trade with sideways bias as gold steadied on Wednesday after falling to a more than two-week low in the previous session, as a stronger dollar dented demand for bullion ahead of the release of minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserves latest meeting. The dollar hovered near a four-week high on Wednesday, supported by higher U.S. yields, which rose overnight after the United States eased trade restrictions on Chinese telecommunications equipment maker Huawei Technologies Co Ltd. Chinese Ambassador to the United States Cui Tiankai said on Tuesday that Beijing was ready to resume trade talks with Washington, but blamed the U.S. side for frequently changing its mind on tentative deals to end U.S.-China trade disputes. Meanwhile, the Fed minutes are expected to provide insights into the May 1 central bank meeting in which policymakers decided to keep interested rates steady and signalled little appetite to adjust them any time soon.

ENERGY- Crude oil may remain subdued as oil prices fell on Wednesday after industry data showed an increase in U.S. crude inventories and as Saudi Arabia pledged to keep markets balanced. The American Petroleum Institute(API) said on Tuesday that U.S. crude stockpiles rose by 2.4 million barrels last week, to 480.2 million barrels, compared with analysts' expectations for a decrease of 599,000 barrels. Official data from the U.S Energy Information Administration's oil stockpiles report is due later on Wednesday. Outside the United States, Saudi Arabia on Wednesday said it was committed to a balanced and sustainable oil market. Saudi Arabia has been at the forefront of supply cuts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), of which the kingdom is the de-facto leader, which started in January and are aimed at reducing global oversupply that emerged in 2018. U.S. natural gas futures on Tuesday fell from a five-week high in the previous session on forecasts for output to increase and demand to decline as the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals drops. 

BASE METAL - Base metals may witness some lower level buying. London copper prices edged higher in early Asian trade on Wednesday, as a new blockade at MMG Ltd's Las Bambas mine in Peru lent support to prices, although gains were capped by ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions. An earlier road blockade at the site by an indigenous community in March and April disrupted the mine's copper concentrate exports and boosted copper prices. An indigenous Peruvian community has imposed a new road blockade on MMG Ltd's Las Bambas mine, one of Peru's largest copper producers, after talks with the company over compensation broke down, a representative of the public ombudsman office said on Tuesday. LME aluminium was down 0.1% at $1,795 a tonne after posting its lowest close since January 2017 on Tuesday. ShFE aluminium fell for a third day, slipping as much as 0.9% to 14,135 yuan, its lowest since May 10.

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Cotton futures (Feb) is likely to plunge further towards 20100-20000 levels. 

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Cottonprices moved lower in Punjab, Haryana and upper Rajasthan, tracking weakness in US natural fiber. Sharp decline in domestic futures along with higher output estimate in China also weighed on spot prices. Worries about a looming March 1 deadline for a US-China trade agreement also dragged prices lower. Meanwhile, negotiators from the United States and China, the world's top soybean buyer, are trying to hammer out a trade deal before a March 1 deadline, when US tariffs on USD 200 billion worth of Chinese imports are scheduled to increase to 25 percent from 10 percent. Guar seed futures (Mar) may face resistance near 4270-4300 levels, while guar gum futures (Mar) is expected to remain below 8450-8500 levels. The week-on-week declining ratio of guar seed to guar gum is depicting the fact that demand for these commodities are decreasing. Chana futures (Mar) is expected to take support near 4165 levels. The counter is trading higher at major markets in the country following firm cues from fresh physical trade activity at lower rates. Flour millers are actively purchasing chana due to cheaper prices and easy availability compared to White Pea. Moreover, the Cold waves and untimely rains may further damage the standing crop. Mentha oil (Feb) is likely to trade with a positive bias taking support near 1565 levels. Overall, sentiments are bullish as delayed sowing in the state is likely to affect the crop yield. As per reports, farmers are now worried as untimely rains and inclement weather conditions have delayed the sowing in key producing belts. The production is likely to be badly affected if weather conditions don't improve in the next few days. 

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Turmeric futures (Apr) is expected to take support near 6280 levels & witness short covering taking positive cues from the spot markets. 

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The arrival of turmeric has been increased on Tuesday. The upcountry demand is expected within a fortnight. The market participants are expecting the arrival of the new Erode Turmeric by the first week of March, when abundant demand from North India may be received by the traders. Jeera futures (Mar) is expected to rally towards 15700-15800 levels, taking support near 15540. Spot jeera prices continued to rule steady at major markets in Gujarat in limited trade on Tuesday id matching demand and supply. This season, Gujarat has witnessed lower sowing, but due to cool weather persisting for a longer time, the yields are expected to get better. In Rajasthan, the climatic conditions are also proving to be beneficial for the standing crop & hence the production is likely to be higher. Coriander futures (Apr) is expected to plunge towards 6000-5900 levels. Spot coriander prices are trading with a bearish bias at major markets in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan due to heavy arrivals from the ample old stocks. While, prices quoted lower by Rs.20 per 20kg at major markets in Gujarat due to increased arrivals & having higher moisture content. On the other hand, there was no report of new crop arrival in Madhya Pradesh.

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Soybean futures (Feb) is expected to witness consolidation in the range of 3725- 3795 levels.

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Data compiled by the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA) showed a sharp jump in soybean meal exports during the period under review from 23,000 tonnes to 2.8 lakh tonnes with the Iran market opening up. Mustard futures (Feb) is likely to fall further towards 3880 levels. The continuous offloading of old stocks by traders and government agencies are continuously building selling pressure on physical markets. The left-over stock with NAFED is now close to 2.18 lakh tons. Additionally, the recent rain and less foggy days are proving to be beneficial for the mustard crop & raising the prospects of higher output this season.Three spells of rains in December and January have boosted moisture in the soil,which increased yields in Rajasthan. Mustard carryover stocks are seen at 500,000 tn in the year ended January, up from 400,000 tn last year. CPO futures (Feb) is likely to witness profit booking from higher levels facing resistance near 575 levels. The majority of oils in Indore mandis have been trading low for the past few days on slack physical demand with soy refined quoted at Rs.777-80 for 10 kg (down Rs.10), while soy solvent ruled at Rs.740-45. Similarly, palm and cotton oils also traded low with palm oil being quoted at Rs.695 (down Rs. 5), while cotton oil (Gujarat) at Rs.715 and cotton oil (Indore) at Rs.755 respectively.

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