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Monday, 18 February 2019

MCX UPDATES By CapitalStars 18/Feb/2019



BULLION - MCX Gold and Silver may note some gains tracking cues from international exchange. COMEX gold trades higher near $1325/oz after a 0.6% gain in previous session. Gold has edged up amid pause in US dollar�s recent rise. The US dollar index trades weaker near 96.74 levels after a second consecutive decline Friday. The US dollar came under pressure as signs of progress in US-China trade talks reduced safe haven demand. Also weighing on US dollar is mixed economic data, Fed�s dovish stance and US President Trump�s move to declare a national emergency that he hopes to use to direct more funds to his US-Mexico border wall project. However, weighing on gold price is strength in US and global equity markets amid US-China progress and ETF outflows. President Donald Trump signaled progress in trade talks with China after the two countries were said to reach consensus in principle on the main topics. The US and China officials will continue discussions this week in Washington. US President signed a spending bill to avert another government shutdown. Gold holdings with SPDR ETF fell by 3.821 tonnes to 793.03 tonnes, lowest since Dec.31. Gold has seen some recovery after failing to test the key $1300/oz levels however price is now back near key resistance level of $1330/oz.

ENERGY- Crude Oil- MCX Crude may note some gains tracking cues from international exchange. NYMEX crude trades higher above $55 per barrel after a 2.2% gain in previous session. Crude edged up amid supply disruption relating to Saudi Arabia which added to tightness concerns and sharp rise in US equity market despite mixed US economic data and as market players eyed progress in US-China trade talks. As per reports, Saudi Aramco halted oil output last week at Safaniyah, the world's largest offshore oilfield. Saudi Arabia was said to curtail some output to repair a damaged power cable. Asian equity markets trade largely higher today after a sharp 1.7% rally in US market Friday as President Donald Trump signaled progress in trade talks with China after the two countries were said to reach consensus in principle on the main topics. US and China will continue discussions this week in Washington. On US front, another government shutdown was averted as President Trump signed a spending bill however he also declared a national emergency that he hopes to use to direct more funds to his US-Mexico border wall project. Crude has managed to gain despite mixed US and Chinese economic data, record high US crude production and downbeat demand outlook for this year. Crude rallied sharply in previous session as US stock market rally was coupled Saudi�s supply disruption however it may not continue hence one must wait for lower levels to create a fresh long position. US markets are closed today and this may keep trade participation low and price choppy.

Natural Gas- MCX Natural gas may note some decline tracking cues from international exchange. NYMEX natural gas trades weaker near $2.6/mmBtu after a 2% gain in previous session. Weighing on gas price are latest weather forecasts which point above normal temperature in parts of US and this will keep a check on heating demand. Also weighing on price is smaller than average decline in gas stocks last week and higher production. Drop in rig count however shows weakening production interest. The number of rig drilling for natural gas fell by 1 to 194 rigs. Natural gas may remain under pressure amid milder weather and higher production however price has still managed to hold above $2.5/mmBtu levels and this continues to be key support for the near term. Focus will continue to be on US weather however the effect will wane as we near end of winter season.

BASE METAL - Base metals on LME trade mix after ending on a lower note last week. LME Zinc was the worst performer with 1.9% decline followed by modest 1.35% drop in Nickel prices. In other metals Aluminum closed 1.2% lower while Copper and Lead ended 0.35% and 0.1% lower respectively.



Investment  trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647
 

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