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Tuesday, 18 July 2017

DAILY COMMODITY MARKET STRATEGY - 18 July 2017

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Oil prices stable as strong demand meets ongoing supply glut

Oil prices were stable on Tuesday, supported by strong consumption but weighed by ongoing high supplies from producer club OPEC and also the United States.

Brent crude futures LCOc1 , the international benchmark for oil prices, were at $48.55 per barrel at 0130 GMT, up 13 cents, or 0.3 percent, from their last close.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 were at $46.12 per barrel, up 10 cents, or 0.2 percent.

In a sign of strong demand, data on Monday showed refineries in China increased crude throughput in June to the second highest on record. this, oil markets have struggled with oversupply since 2014, resulting in a more than 50 percent fall in prices since then.

A deal by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries with Russia and other non-OPEC producers to cut supplies by around 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) between January this year and March 2018 has so far not led to the tighter market and higher prices that producers have hoped for.

That's because supplies from within OPEC remain high largely due to rising output from Nigeria and Libya, two OPEC states exempt from the pact, and increasing U.S. production.

Gold up, poised for more gains on soft U.S. rate outlook

Gold climbed on Monday and was likely to see further gains after the dollar slumped to multi-month lows on the back of data that pointed to weak U.S. inflation and dampened prospects for rate hikes.

"The dollar continues to be on the back foot and yields have dropped back somewhat from their relatively elevated positioning lately," said analyst Jonathan Butler at Mitsubishi in London.

Spot gold XAU= was up 0.5 percent at $1,234.61 an ounce by 2:53 p.m. EDT (1853 GMT), while U.S. gold futures GCcv1 for August delivery settled up 0.5 percent at $1,233.70.

"If gold remains at $1,230 or goes higher, there's an elevated risk that some of those short positions might start to be reversed and that would give some further upside to gold,"

Gold prices slightly pared gains as the U.S. dollar .DXY came off its lows after hitting its lowest level against a basket of major currencies in 10 months as recent soft U.S. inflation and domestic demand figures undermined arguments for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.

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