BULLION - MCX Gold and Silver may note some decline tracking cues from international exchange. COMEX gold trades weaker near $1341/oz after testing 10-month high of $1349.8/oz in previous session. Gold came under pressure amid some stability in US dollar post release of FOMC minutes. Minutes of Fed meeting showed that Fed officials are still upbeat on US economy and this has kept door open for another rate hike. Fed officials also discussed ending the bond reduction plan and may soon announce details on the same. FOMC minutes reaffirmed Fed�s patient rate hike stance and willingness to end balance sheet reduction plans however it was largely factored in and there was no fresh clue to add to Fed�s dovish stance hence we are seeing some stability in US dollar. Also market focus will now shift to ECB monetary policy minutes today. The central bank has maintained cautious tone on euro-zone economy and this will not bode well for euro. Market players are also eyeing trade related development. US-China trade talks are progressing however lack of concrete announcement will leave market players restless. Meanwhile, US President Trump on Wednesday said the US would impose tariffs on European car imports if it cannot reach a trade deal with the European Union. ETF inflows show some buying interest in gold with price near 10-month high. Gold holdings with SPDR ETF rose by 2.05 tonnes to 794.503 tonnes. Gold rallied sharply in last few days on expectations that FOMC minutes will add to Fed�s dovish tilt however lack of any fresh cue has resulted in some correction and this could extend further.
ENERGY- Crude Oil- MCX Crude may note mixed trade in line with international market however bias is still on the upside. NYMEX crude trades mixed near $57 per barrel after a 1.5% gain in previous session when it hit the highest level since Nov.2018. Supporting crude oil price is API weekly report which noted a smaller than expected 1.26 million barrel increase in US crude oil stocks and a decline in gasoline and distillate stocks. Crude oil also remains supported by OPEC�s adherence to production cuts. The OPEC+ Joint Technical Committee assessed compliance with the group's production curbs at 83% in January, the first month of the deal. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and Russia have indicated that they will deepen cuts in coming months. US sanctions on Venezuela and Iran has also added to expectations of lower supply from OPEC. Meanwhile, supply concerns are also high amid partial closure of Saudi Arabia�s Safaniyah oilfield. Amid other factors, global equity markets turned choppy after FOMC minutes did not add to Fed�s dovish tilt. Fed maintained optimism about US economy keeping option open for a rate hike. US-China trade talks are progressing well but trade concerns rose as US President Trump on Wednesday said the US would impose tariffs on European car imports if it cannot reach a trade deal with the European Union.
Natural Gas- Natural Gas- MCX Natural gas may note mixed trade in line with international market but sell on rise is suggested. NYMEX natural gas trades mixed near $2.65/mmBtu ahead of inventory report. US EIA is expected to note a 165 Bcf decline in US natural gas stocks as against 5-year average decline of 148 Bcf. A bigger than average decline will widen the deficit in the market but this has already been factored in. Also with the nearing end of winter season, stocks withdrawals are expected to normalize in coming days. On demand front, weather forecasts are indicating colder weather in parts of US which will increase heating demand. However, demand is also expected to wane down with end of winter season. Natural gas may remain rangebound ahead of inventory report but overall sell on rise will be ideal strategy. It is unlikely that the stock drop may be huge enough to refuel tightness concerns.
BASE METAL - Most Base metals on LME trade with a weaker bias today after closing on a higher note yesterday. LME Nickel was the best performer with 1.9% gains followed by 1.5% rally in Zinc prices and 1.4% gains in Copper prices. In other metals Lead and Aluminium too ended 1% and 0.65% higher respectively.
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